Recent tracking polls, including Nanos Research's April 24 update showing Liberal support at 44.6%—down from 45.8% the prior week—along with reports of flattening momentum and a lead narrowing to 11 points over Conservatives, have traders pricing a 57.5% chance of declining seat projections this week. Liberals swept recent by-elections in Ontario and Quebec, bolstering their minority government to near-majority status, but lower vote shares amid subdued turnout signal potential voter fatigue. Aggregators like 338Canada project Liberals at 217 seats (up slightly as of April 26), yet the closely contested odds reflect uncertainty ahead of any new polls, with no major releases in the past 48 hours amid stable national trends favoring a Liberal majority path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLiberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Liberals Up or Down for Canada Seats Polls this week?
Up
$55 Vol.
$55 Vol.
29 mar 2026
Up
$55 Vol.
$55 Vol.
29 mar 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent tracking polls, including Nanos Research's April 24 update showing Liberal support at 44.6%—down from 45.8% the prior week—along with reports of flattening momentum and a lead narrowing to 11 points over Conservatives, have traders pricing a 57.5% chance of declining seat projections this week. Liberals swept recent by-elections in Ontario and Quebec, bolstering their minority government to near-majority status, but lower vote shares amid subdued turnout signal potential voter fatigue. Aggregators like 338Canada project Liberals at 217 seats (up slightly as of April 26), yet the closely contested odds reflect uncertainty ahead of any new polls, with no major releases in the past 48 hours amid stable national trends favoring a Liberal majority path.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$55Data di fine
29 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Down
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Down
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent tracking polls, including Nanos Research's April 24 update showing Liberal support at 44.6%—down from 45.8% the prior week—along with reports of flattening momentum and a lead narrowing to 11 points over Conservatives, have traders pricing a 57.5% chance of declining seat projections this week. Liberals swept recent by-elections in Ontario and Quebec, bolstering their minority government to near-majority status, but lower vote shares amid subdued turnout signal potential voter fatigue. Aggregators like 338Canada project Liberals at 217 seats (up slightly as of April 26), yet the closely contested odds reflect uncertainty ahead of any new polls, with no major releases in the past 48 hours amid stable national trends favoring a Liberal majority path.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on April 5, 2026, than on March 29, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is higher on March 29, 2026, than on April 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC)'s 338Canada Seat Projection is the same on both dates.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
If no data point is published for the latter reference date by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the specified party on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$55Data di fine
29 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Down
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Down
Recent tracking polls, including Nanos Research's April 24 update showing Liberal support at 44.6%—down from 45.8% the prior week—along with reports of flattening momentum and a lead narrowing to 11 points over Conservatives, have traders pricing a 57.5% chance of declining seat projections this week. Liberals swept recent by-elections in Ontario and Quebec, bolstering their minority government to near-majority status, but lower vote shares amid subdued turnout signal potential voter fatigue. Aggregators like 338Canada project Liberals at 217 seats (up slightly as of April 26), yet the closely contested odds reflect uncertainty ahead of any new polls, with no major releases in the past 48 hours amid stable national trends favoring a Liberal majority path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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