Juan Pablo Velasco leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to win Bolivia's Santa Cruz gubernatorial runoff on April 19, driven by his first-round plurality of 28.4% on March 22 over Otto Ritter's 26.7% for Santa Cruz Para Todos, advancing both under the two-round electoral system requiring over 50% or a 10-point margin. A recent Ipsos CIESMORI poll for Unitel shows Velasco ahead by 8.9 points among decided voters, with 15% undecided, bolstering his frontrunner status amid enthusiastic campaign closes. Ritter trails at 18.1% as traders weigh Velasco's momentum against potential local disruptions from municipal election protests, in this fragmented subnational race reshaping regional power.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJuan Pablo Velasco 81.0%
Otto Ritter 18.9%
Juan Carlos Medrano <1%
Mauricio Quezada <1%
$1,040,008 Vol.
$1,040,008 Vol.
19 apr 2026
Juan Pablo Velasco
81%
Otto Ritter
19%
Juan Carlos Medrano
<1%
Mauricio Quezada
<1%
Chi Hyun Chung
<1%
Julio César Tórrez
<1%
Guido Eduardo Nayar
<1%
Miguel Cadima
<1%
Vladimir Peña
<1%
Luis Fernando Camacho
<1%
Juan Pablo Velasco 81.0%
Otto Ritter 18.9%
Juan Carlos Medrano <1%
Mauricio Quezada <1%
$1,040,008 Vol.
$1,040,008 Vol.
19 apr 2026
Juan Pablo Velasco
$484,489 Vol.
81%
Otto Ritter
$179,402 Vol.
19%
Juan Carlos Medrano
$28,745 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Quezada
$22,893 Vol.
<1%
Chi Hyun Chung
$30,134 Vol.
<1%
Julio César Tórrez
$27,347 Vol.
<1%
Guido Eduardo Nayar
$52,035 Vol.
<1%
Miguel Cadima
$25,704 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Peña
$41,366 Vol.
<1%
Luis Fernando Camacho
$147,966 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Juan Pablo Velasco leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to win Bolivia's Santa Cruz gubernatorial runoff on April 19, driven by his first-round plurality of 28.4% on March 22 over Otto Ritter's 26.7% for Santa Cruz Para Todos, advancing both under the two-round electoral system requiring over 50% or a 10-point margin. A recent Ipsos CIESMORI poll for Unitel shows Velasco ahead by 8.9 points among decided voters, with 15% undecided, bolstering his frontrunner status amid enthusiastic campaign closes. Ritter trails at 18.1% as traders weigh Velasco's momentum against potential local disruptions from municipal election protests, in this fragmented subnational race reshaping regional power.
The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercato aperto: Jan 20, 2026, 11:20 AM ET
Volume
$1,040,008Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 20, 2026, 11:20 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).Juan Pablo Velasco leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to win Bolivia's Santa Cruz gubernatorial runoff on April 19, driven by his first-round plurality of 28.4% on March 22 over Otto Ritter's 26.7% for Santa Cruz Para Todos, advancing both under the two-round electoral system requiring over 50% or a 10-point margin. A recent Ipsos CIESMORI poll for Unitel shows Velasco ahead by 8.9 points among decided voters, with 15% undecided, bolstering his frontrunner status amid enthusiastic campaign closes. Ritter trails at 18.1% as traders weigh Velasco's momentum against potential local disruptions from municipal election protests, in this fragmented subnational race reshaping regional power.
The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Volume
$1,040,008Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 20, 2026, 11:20 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Juan Pablo Velasco leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to win Bolivia's Santa Cruz gubernatorial runoff on April 19, driven by his first-round plurality of 28.4% on March 22 over Otto Ritter's 26.7% for Santa Cruz Para Todos, advancing both under the two-round electoral system requiring over 50% or a 10-point margin. A recent Ipsos CIESMORI poll for Unitel shows Velasco ahead by 8.9 points among decided voters, with 15% undecided, bolstering his frontrunner status amid enthusiastic campaign closes. Ritter trails at 18.1% as traders weigh Velasco's momentum against potential local disruptions from municipal election protests, in this fragmented subnational race reshaping regional power.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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