Traders assign a 63% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting zero flights so far amid repeated delays for the critical Flight 12—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets. This skepticism stems from the transition to Version 3 hardware, including a stretched Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor 3 engines, requiring extensive validation amid FAA regulatory scrutiny. Recent full-duration static fire tests on Ship 39 and Booster 19 (completed within the last week) clear key hurdles for this suborbital test, potentially enabling tower catches and paving the way for higher cadence. Florida's debut launch eyes late summer, but historical iteration paces suggest 5-6 flights (21% odds) as the next viable outcome if V3 delivers rapid reusability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
<5 63%
5-6 19%
9-10 6.1%
7-8 4.0%
$442,265 Vol.
$442,265 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
63%
5-6
19%
7-8
4%
9-10
9%
11-12
3%
13-14
1%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
<5 63%
5-6 19%
9-10 6.1%
7-8 4.0%
$442,265 Vol.
$442,265 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$88,102 Vol.
63%
5-6
$106,732 Vol.
19%
7-8
$151,197 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,304 Vol.
9%
11-12
$3,437 Vol.
3%
13-14
$4,486 Vol.
1%
15-16
$24,213 Vol.
1%
>16
$8,795 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 63% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting zero flights so far amid repeated delays for the critical Flight 12—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets. This skepticism stems from the transition to Version 3 hardware, including a stretched Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor 3 engines, requiring extensive validation amid FAA regulatory scrutiny. Recent full-duration static fire tests on Ship 39 and Booster 19 (completed within the last week) clear key hurdles for this suborbital test, potentially enabling tower catches and paving the way for higher cadence. Florida's debut launch eyes late summer, but historical iteration paces suggest 5-6 flights (21% odds) as the next viable outcome if V3 delivers rapid reusability.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$442,265Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 63% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting zero flights so far amid repeated delays for the critical Flight 12—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets. This skepticism stems from the transition to Version 3 hardware, including a stretched Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor 3 engines, requiring extensive validation amid FAA regulatory scrutiny. Recent full-duration static fire tests on Ship 39 and Booster 19 (completed within the last week) clear key hurdles for this suborbital test, potentially enabling tower catches and paving the way for higher cadence. Florida's debut launch eyes late summer, but historical iteration paces suggest 5-6 flights (21% odds) as the next viable outcome if V3 delivers rapid reusability.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$442,265Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 63% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting zero flights so far amid repeated delays for the critical Flight 12—now targeting early May after slipping from March targets. This skepticism stems from the transition to Version 3 hardware, including a stretched Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor 3 engines, requiring extensive validation amid FAA regulatory scrutiny. Recent full-duration static fire tests on Ship 39 and Booster 19 (completed within the last week) clear key hurdles for this suborbital test, potentially enabling tower catches and paving the way for higher cadence. Florida's debut launch eyes late summer, but historical iteration paces suggest 5-6 flights (21% odds) as the next viable outcome if V3 delivers rapid reusability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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