Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and international observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton impact during 2026. Detection systems effectively catalog objects larger than tens of meters well in advance, making an undetected strike of this energy release statistically improbable within the remaining months of the year. Historical impact rates for 20–50 meter bodies average once every few decades globally, but the narrow 2026 window combined with current orbital data keeps implied probability of occurrence low. An unexpected long-period comet or a small, fast-approaching fragment could theoretically alter this assessment if discovered, though such events remain exceptionally rare.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and international observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton impact during 2026. Detection systems effectively catalog objects larger than tens of meters well in advance, making an undetected strike of this energy release statistically improbable within the remaining months of the year. Historical impact rates for 20–50 meter bodies average once every few decades globally, but the narrow 2026 window combined with current orbital data keeps implied probability of occurrence low. An unexpected long-period comet or a small, fast-approaching fragment could theoretically alter this assessment if discovered, though such events remain exceptionally rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,582Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and international observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton impact during 2026. Detection systems effectively catalog objects larger than tens of meters well in advance, making an undetected strike of this energy release statistically improbable within the remaining months of the year. Historical impact rates for 20–50 meter bodies average once every few decades globally, but the narrow 2026 window combined with current orbital data keeps implied probability of occurrence low. An unexpected long-period comet or a small, fast-approaching fragment could theoretically alter this assessment if discovered, though such events remain exceptionally rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,582Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing astronomical surveys by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and international observatories have identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton impact during 2026. Detection systems effectively catalog objects larger than tens of meters well in advance, making an undetected strike of this energy release statistically improbable within the remaining months of the year. Historical impact rates for 20–50 meter bodies average once every few decades globally, but the narrow 2026 window combined with current orbital data keeps implied probability of occurrence low. An unexpected long-period comet or a small, fast-approaching fragment could theoretically alter this assessment if discovered, though such events remain exceptionally rare.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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