Trader consensus has locked in at a near-certain 100% implied probability for exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026, driven by the official tally on SpaceX's launches page confirming the month's close on April 30 with no additional missions. This frontrunner status solidified after back-to-back successes on April 29—Starlink from Vandenberg and Viasat-3 F3 on Falcon Heavy from Kennedy—capping a record-shattering cadence that included 10 prior Starlink groups, Cygnus NG-24 resupply, and GPS III-8, marking SpaceX's 50th mission of the year by April 26 amid surging Starlink deployment momentum. The aggressive schedule from Florida and California pads met expectations without delays, reflecting Elon Musk's high-stakes push for orbital dominance. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare resolution disputes, like a retroactive suborbital inclusion or FAA recount, though traders see negligible risk post-deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di SpaceX in aprile?
Quanti lanci di SpaceX in aprile?
12 100.0%
≤11 <1%
13 <1%
14 <1%
$99,730 Vol.
$99,730 Vol.
≤11
No
12
Sì
13
No
14
No
15
No
16
No
17 o più
No
12 100.0%
≤11 <1%
13 <1%
14 <1%
$99,730 Vol.
$99,730 Vol.
≤11
No
12
Sì
13
No
14
No
15
No
16
No
17 o più
No
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus has locked in at a near-certain 100% implied probability for exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026, driven by the official tally on SpaceX's launches page confirming the month's close on April 30 with no additional missions. This frontrunner status solidified after back-to-back successes on April 29—Starlink from Vandenberg and Viasat-3 F3 on Falcon Heavy from Kennedy—capping a record-shattering cadence that included 10 prior Starlink groups, Cygnus NG-24 resupply, and GPS III-8, marking SpaceX's 50th mission of the year by April 26 amid surging Starlink deployment momentum. The aggressive schedule from Florida and California pads met expectations without delays, reflecting Elon Musk's high-stakes push for orbital dominance. Realistic upsets now hinge on rare resolution disputes, like a retroactive suborbital inclusion or FAA recount, though traders see negligible risk post-deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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