Ongoing NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including advanced detection systems like JPL's Scout and ESA's Meerkat, have catalogued the vast majority of asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ airburst and identified none on impact trajectories for 2026. This comprehensive monitoring, covering objects down to meter-scale, underpins the 87.5% market-implied odds for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the low baseline frequency of such events amid improved orbital tracking and predictive modeling. Residual uncertainty stems from potentially undetected smaller bodies, though recent close passes like 2026 JH2 and 2026 JN4 produced negligible energy yields. Key catalysts ahead include continued telescopic observations and any late-year discoveries that could shift positioning before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sì
$164,959 Vol.
$164,959 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$164,959 Vol.
$164,959 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including advanced detection systems like JPL's Scout and ESA's Meerkat, have catalogued the vast majority of asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ airburst and identified none on impact trajectories for 2026. This comprehensive monitoring, covering objects down to meter-scale, underpins the 87.5% market-implied odds for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the low baseline frequency of such events amid improved orbital tracking and predictive modeling. Residual uncertainty stems from potentially undetected smaller bodies, though recent close passes like 2026 JH2 and 2026 JN4 produced negligible energy yields. Key catalysts ahead include continued telescopic observations and any late-year discoveries that could shift positioning before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$164,959Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including advanced detection systems like JPL's Scout and ESA's Meerkat, have catalogued the vast majority of asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ airburst and identified none on impact trajectories for 2026. This comprehensive monitoring, covering objects down to meter-scale, underpins the 87.5% market-implied odds for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the low baseline frequency of such events amid improved orbital tracking and predictive modeling. Residual uncertainty stems from potentially undetected smaller bodies, though recent close passes like 2026 JH2 and 2026 JN4 produced negligible energy yields. Key catalysts ahead include continued telescopic observations and any late-year discoveries that could shift positioning before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$164,959Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including advanced detection systems like JPL's Scout and ESA's Meerkat, have catalogued the vast majority of asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ airburst and identified none on impact trajectories for 2026. This comprehensive monitoring, covering objects down to meter-scale, underpins the 87.5% market-implied odds for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the low baseline frequency of such events amid improved orbital tracking and predictive modeling. Residual uncertainty stems from potentially undetected smaller bodies, though recent close passes like 2026 JH2 and 2026 JN4 produced negligible energy yields. Key catalysts ahead include continued telescopic observations and any late-year discoveries that could shift positioning before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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