In Arizona's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, trader consensus heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 71% implied probability, driven by his Q1 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $740,000—all from contributions—dwarfing rivals and signaling strong donor support. Trump’s January dual endorsement with Gina Swoboda, followed by NRCC backing in March, has solidified Feely’s frontrunner status in this toss-up seat vacated by David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, who resigned in February to focus full-time, trails at 9% amid a crowded field, with no public polls yet but Feely’s visibility and national momentum boosting his edge ahead of early voting in June.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJay Feely 71%
Joseph Chaplik 9.0%
John Trobough 7.1%
Todd Graham 5.3%
$367,425 Vol.
$367,425 Vol.
4 ago 2026
Jay Feely
71%
Joseph Chaplik
9%
John Trobough
7%
Todd Graham
5%
Gina Swoboda
4%
Jason Duey
3%
Kari Lake
1%
Mark Brnovich
1%
Matt Gress
1%
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
1%
Kaitlin Purrington
1%
Derrick Gallego
<1%
Paul Reevs
<1%
Brandon Sowers
<1%
Jay Feely 71%
Joseph Chaplik 9.0%
John Trobough 7.1%
Todd Graham 5.3%
$367,425 Vol.
$367,425 Vol.
4 ago 2026
Jay Feely
$4,858 Vol.
71%
Joseph Chaplik
$8,148 Vol.
9%
John Trobough
$3,236 Vol.
7%
Todd Graham
$7,582 Vol.
5%
Gina Swoboda
$4,187 Vol.
4%
Jason Duey
$0 Vol.
3%
Kari Lake
$6,398 Vol.
1%
Mark Brnovich
$36,231 Vol.
1%
Matt Gress
$47,835 Vol.
1%
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
$4,346 Vol.
1%
Kaitlin Purrington
$8,249 Vol.
1%
Derrick Gallego
$3,525 Vol.
<1%
Paul Reevs
$222,116 Vol.
<1%
Brandon Sowers
$10,713 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Arizona's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, trader consensus heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 71% implied probability, driven by his Q1 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $740,000—all from contributions—dwarfing rivals and signaling strong donor support. Trump’s January dual endorsement with Gina Swoboda, followed by NRCC backing in March, has solidified Feely’s frontrunner status in this toss-up seat vacated by David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, who resigned in February to focus full-time, trails at 9% amid a crowded field, with no public polls yet but Feely’s visibility and national momentum boosting his edge ahead of early voting in June.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercato aperto: Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET
Volume
$367,425Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Arizona's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, trader consensus heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 71% implied probability, driven by his Q1 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $740,000—all from contributions—dwarfing rivals and signaling strong donor support. Trump’s January dual endorsement with Gina Swoboda, followed by NRCC backing in March, has solidified Feely’s frontrunner status in this toss-up seat vacated by David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, who resigned in February to focus full-time, trails at 9% amid a crowded field, with no public polls yet but Feely’s visibility and national momentum boosting his edge ahead of early voting in June.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$367,425Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Arizona's open 1st Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, trader consensus heavily favors former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 71% implied probability, driven by his Q1 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $740,000—all from contributions—dwarfing rivals and signaling strong donor support. Trump’s January dual endorsement with Gina Swoboda, followed by NRCC backing in March, has solidified Feely’s frontrunner status in this toss-up seat vacated by David Schweikert’s gubernatorial bid. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik, who resigned in February to focus full-time, trails at 9% amid a crowded field, with no public polls yet but Feely’s visibility and national momentum boosting his edge ahead of early voting in June.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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