Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiKeputusan Fed (Jan - Apr)
Keputusan Fed (Jan - Apr)
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan 100.0%
Turun–Tahan–Tahan <1%
Potong–Potong–Jeda <1%
Tahan–Turun–Tahan <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Turun–Tahan–Tahan
Tidak
Potong–Potong–Jeda
Tidak
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan
Ya
Tahan–Turun–Tahan
Tidak
Lainnya
Tidak
Potong–Jeda–Potong
Tidak
Pangkas–Pangkas–Pangkas
Tidak
Tahan–Tahan–Potong
Tidak
Tahan–Turun–Turun
Tidak
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan 100.0%
Turun–Tahan–Tahan <1%
Potong–Potong–Jeda <1%
Tahan–Turun–Tahan <1%
$695,645 Vol.
$695,645 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Turun–Tahan–Tahan
$2,755 Vol.
Tidak
Potong–Potong–Jeda
$6,537 Vol.
Tidak
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan
$116,256 Vol.
Ya
Tahan–Turun–Tahan
$0 Vol.
Tidak
Lainnya
$289,268 Vol.
Tidak
Potong–Jeda–Potong
$8,555 Vol.
Tidak
Pangkas–Pangkas–Pangkas
$22,139 Vol.
Tidak
Tahan–Tahan–Potong
$250,134 Vol.
Tidak
Tahan–Turun–Turun
$0 Vol.
Tidak
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$695,645Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hasil diajukan: Tidak
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Tidak
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$695,645Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hasil diajukan: Tidak
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Tidak
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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