**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.** The May 2026 CPI report showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.9%. Nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling continued economic strength that reduces the case for easing. Recent Fed communications and futures pricing indicate policymakers are likely to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range, with any shift toward hikes deferred. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and the July 14 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this outlook, though a material deviation from the current data trajectory would be required to alter the strong trader consensus for status quo policy.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 4.6%
Penurunan 25 bps 1.9%
Penurunan 50+ bps <1%
$9,448,708 Vol.
$9,448,708 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
2%
Tidak ada perubahan
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
5%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
<1%
Tidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 4.6%
Penurunan 25 bps 1.9%
Penurunan 50+ bps <1%
$9,448,708 Vol.
$9,448,708 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
$1,329,380 Vol.
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
$1,057,603 Vol.
2%
Tidak ada perubahan
$1,449,782 Vol.
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
$4,060,058 Vol.
5%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
$1,551,906 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.** The May 2026 CPI report showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.9%. Nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling continued economic strength that reduces the case for easing.
Recent Fed communications and futures pricing indicate policymakers are likely to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range, with any shift toward hikes deferred. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and the July 14 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this outlook, though a material deviation from the current data trajectory would be required to alter the strong trader consensus for status quo policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$9,448,708Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.** The May 2026 CPI report showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.9%. Nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling continued economic strength that reduces the case for easing.
Recent Fed communications and futures pricing indicate policymakers are likely to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range, with any shift toward hikes deferred. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and the July 14 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this outlook, though a material deviation from the current data trajectory would be required to alter the strong trader consensus for status quo policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$9,448,708Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.** The May 2026 CPI report showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, while core CPI reached 2.9%. Nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, signaling continued economic strength that reduces the case for easing. Recent Fed communications and futures pricing indicate policymakers are likely to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range, with any shift toward hikes deferred. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and the July 14 CPI release remain key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this outlook, though a material deviation from the current data trajectory would be required to alter the strong trader consensus for status quo policy.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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