Elevated inflation from the April 2026 CPI release at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, anchors the 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The labor market remains balanced with April nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, providing little impetus for either tightening or easing. Trader consensus aligns with the Fed's April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, as incoming data has reinforced a cautious policy stance over forward rate paths. Key swing factors include the May CPI report due June 10 and employment data on June 5, which could shift positioning if they materially alter the inflation or employment outlook before the July 28-29 decision.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 6.3%
Penurunan 25 bps 1.4%
Penurunan 50+ bps <1%
$6,389,215 Vol.
$6,389,215 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
1%
Tidak ada perubahan
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
6%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
<1%
Tidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 6.3%
Penurunan 25 bps 1.4%
Penurunan 50+ bps <1%
$6,389,215 Vol.
$6,389,215 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
$684,368 Vol.
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
$599,784 Vol.
1%
Tidak ada perubahan
$806,825 Vol.
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
$3,558,960 Vol.
6%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
$739,288 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation from the April 2026 CPI release at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, anchors the 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The labor market remains balanced with April nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, providing little impetus for either tightening or easing. Trader consensus aligns with the Fed's April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, as incoming data has reinforced a cautious policy stance over forward rate paths. Key swing factors include the May CPI report due June 10 and employment data on June 5, which could shift positioning if they materially alter the inflation or employment outlook before the July 28-29 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,389,215Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation from the April 2026 CPI release at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, anchors the 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The labor market remains balanced with April nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, providing little impetus for either tightening or easing. Trader consensus aligns with the Fed's April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, as incoming data has reinforced a cautious policy stance over forward rate paths. Key swing factors include the May CPI report due June 10 and employment data on June 5, which could shift positioning if they materially alter the inflation or employment outlook before the July 28-29 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$6,389,215Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation from the April 2026 CPI release at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, anchors the 92.5% implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. The labor market remains balanced with April nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and unemployment holding at 4.3%, providing little impetus for either tightening or easing. Trader consensus aligns with the Fed's April hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range, as incoming data has reinforced a cautious policy stance over forward rate paths. Key swing factors include the May CPI report due June 10 and employment data on June 5, which could shift positioning if they materially alter the inflation or employment outlook before the July 28-29 decision.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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