Recent inflation pressures from elevated oil and commodity prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth, have anchored Federal Reserve policy expectations for no changes at the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. The April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—despite internal dissent over forward guidance—reinforced market-implied odds of a pause-pause-pause sequence exceeding 90%. Traders view incoming data, including April PCE and employment figures, as insufficient to justify easing, aligning with analyst forecasts of steady policy through year-end absent significant disinflation or labor market deterioration. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 meeting with updated projections and any resolution in commodity markets that could shift the balance of risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
$54,200 Vol.
$54,200 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.8%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
$54,200 Vol.
$54,200 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
5%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation pressures from elevated oil and commodity prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth, have anchored Federal Reserve policy expectations for no changes at the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings. The April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%—despite internal dissent over forward guidance—reinforced market-implied odds of a pause-pause-pause sequence exceeding 90%. Traders view incoming data, including April PCE and employment figures, as insufficient to justify easing, aligning with analyst forecasts of steady policy through year-end absent significant disinflation or labor market deterioration. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 meeting with updated projections and any resolution in commodity markets that could shift the balance of risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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