Polymarket traders assign a 79% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting robust economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures that diminish near-term cut expectations. The March 2026 FOMC held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one reduction by year-end amid core CPI rising 0.20% month-over-month in March—below estimates but with inflation remaining elevated above 2%—and unemployment holding near 4.3% on modest job gains. Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent pause, prioritizing inflation risks over labor market softening signals like rising jobless claims. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases before the upcoming meeting, alongside Treasury yields hovering near multi-month highs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
BARU
BARU
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
BARU
BARU
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$829 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$676 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,380 Vol.
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$936 Vol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$739 Vol.
3%
Other
$906 Vol.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 79% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting robust economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures that diminish near-term cut expectations. The March 2026 FOMC held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one reduction by year-end amid core CPI rising 0.20% month-over-month in March—below estimates but with inflation remaining elevated above 2%—and unemployment holding near 4.3% on modest job gains. Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent pause, prioritizing inflation risks over labor market softening signals like rising jobless claims. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases before the upcoming meeting, alongside Treasury yields hovering near multi-month highs.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$7,495Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 79% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting robust economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures that diminish near-term cut expectations. The March 2026 FOMC held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one reduction by year-end amid core CPI rising 0.20% month-over-month in March—below estimates but with inflation remaining elevated above 2%—and unemployment holding near 4.3% on modest job gains. Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent pause, prioritizing inflation risks over labor market softening signals like rising jobless claims. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases before the upcoming meeting, alongside Treasury yields hovering near multi-month highs.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$7,495Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 79% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting robust economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures that diminish near-term cut expectations. The March 2026 FOMC held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one reduction by year-end amid core CPI rising 0.20% month-over-month in March—below estimates but with inflation remaining elevated above 2%—and unemployment holding near 4.3% on modest job gains. Chair Powell's recent remarks underscore a data-dependent pause, prioritizing inflation risks over labor market softening signals like rising jobless claims. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases before the upcoming meeting, alongside Treasury yields hovering near multi-month highs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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