The market-implied odds assign a 93% probability to three consecutive Fed pauses through July, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic data and sticky inflation have kept monetary policy on hold. Recent releases, including solid labor market readings and inflation metrics above the 2% target, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the current federal funds rate range rather than ease policy. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s forward guidance emphasizing data dependence and a higher-for-longer stance. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI print and FOMC communications, which could shift odds if they reveal faster disinflation or unexpected weakness in employment. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the pause sequence involve sharper downside surprises in growth or a clear pivot in central bank rhetoric.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,967 Vol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe market-implied odds assign a 93% probability to three consecutive Fed pauses through July, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic data and sticky inflation have kept monetary policy on hold. Recent releases, including solid labor market readings and inflation metrics above the 2% target, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the current federal funds rate range rather than ease policy. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s forward guidance emphasizing data dependence and a higher-for-longer stance. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI print and FOMC communications, which could shift odds if they reveal faster disinflation or unexpected weakness in employment. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the pause sequence involve sharper downside surprises in growth or a clear pivot in central bank rhetoric.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$54,187Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe market-implied odds assign a 93% probability to three consecutive Fed pauses through July, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic data and sticky inflation have kept monetary policy on hold. Recent releases, including solid labor market readings and inflation metrics above the 2% target, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the current federal funds rate range rather than ease policy. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s forward guidance emphasizing data dependence and a higher-for-longer stance. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI print and FOMC communications, which could shift odds if they reveal faster disinflation or unexpected weakness in employment. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the pause sequence involve sharper downside surprises in growth or a clear pivot in central bank rhetoric.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$54,187Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds assign a 93% probability to three consecutive Fed pauses through July, reflecting trader consensus that resilient economic data and sticky inflation have kept monetary policy on hold. Recent releases, including solid labor market readings and inflation metrics above the 2% target, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will maintain the current federal funds rate range rather than ease policy. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s forward guidance emphasizing data dependence and a higher-for-longer stance. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI print and FOMC communications, which could shift odds if they reveal faster disinflation or unexpected weakness in employment. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the pause sequence involve sharper downside surprises in growth or a clear pivot in central bank rhetoric.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan