Recent inflation data and labor market strength have driven trader sentiment toward an elevated probability of a September rate hike following holds at the June and July FOMC meetings, elevating the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause trades at just 20.5%. Elevated core PCE readings near 3.3% and stronger-than-expected August payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s focus on returning inflation to the 2% target under Chair Warsh, whose dot plot showed nearly half of officials favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions have added upward pressure on energy prices, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75% through July but raising the market-implied odds of tightening at the September 15–16 meeting. This path diverges from the limited listed sequences, underscoring how incoming data have shifted consensus away from an extended pause.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOther 79%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$863,201 Vol.
$863,201 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
79%
Other 79%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$863,201 Vol.
$863,201 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,642 Vol.
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,079 Vol.
<1%
Other
$372,604 Vol.
79%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data and labor market strength have driven trader sentiment toward an elevated probability of a September rate hike following holds at the June and July FOMC meetings, elevating the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause trades at just 20.5%. Elevated core PCE readings near 3.3% and stronger-than-expected August payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s focus on returning inflation to the 2% target under Chair Warsh, whose dot plot showed nearly half of officials favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions have added upward pressure on energy prices, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75% through July but raising the market-implied odds of tightening at the September 15–16 meeting. This path diverges from the limited listed sequences, underscoring how incoming data have shifted consensus away from an extended pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$863,201Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data and labor market strength have driven trader sentiment toward an elevated probability of a September rate hike following holds at the June and July FOMC meetings, elevating the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause trades at just 20.5%. Elevated core PCE readings near 3.3% and stronger-than-expected August payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s focus on returning inflation to the 2% target under Chair Warsh, whose dot plot showed nearly half of officials favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions have added upward pressure on energy prices, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75% through July but raising the market-implied odds of tightening at the September 15–16 meeting. This path diverges from the limited listed sequences, underscoring how incoming data have shifted consensus away from an extended pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$863,201Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data and labor market strength have driven trader sentiment toward an elevated probability of a September rate hike following holds at the June and July FOMC meetings, elevating the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause trades at just 20.5%. Elevated core PCE readings near 3.3% and stronger-than-expected August payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s focus on returning inflation to the 2% target under Chair Warsh, whose dot plot showed nearly half of officials favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. Geopolitical supply shocks from Middle East tensions have added upward pressure on energy prices, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75% through July but raising the market-implied odds of tightening at the September 15–16 meeting. This path diverges from the limited listed sequences, underscoring how incoming data have shifted consensus away from an extended pause.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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