Strong May jobs data showing 172,000 payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment has reinforced trader views of a resilient labor market, reducing pressure for near-term easing while persistent core inflation above the 2% target—amplified by tariff effects and Middle East supply risks—has elevated the chance of a hawkish hold. With the September FOMC meeting set to include updated economic projections, market pricing reflects consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current federal funds rate range absent clearer disinflation signals. Modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks from ongoing geopolitical and trade developments, while deeper cuts remain sidelined given the absence of labor market deterioration.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$179,799 Vol.
$179,799 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$179,799 Vol.
$179,799 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$36,861 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$34,532 Vol.
3%
No change
$37,254 Vol.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,244 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$33,909 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong May jobs data showing 172,000 payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment has reinforced trader views of a resilient labor market, reducing pressure for near-term easing while persistent core inflation above the 2% target—amplified by tariff effects and Middle East supply risks—has elevated the chance of a hawkish hold. With the September FOMC meeting set to include updated economic projections, market pricing reflects consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current federal funds rate range absent clearer disinflation signals. Modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks from ongoing geopolitical and trade developments, while deeper cuts remain sidelined given the absence of labor market deterioration.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$179,799Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong May jobs data showing 172,000 payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment has reinforced trader views of a resilient labor market, reducing pressure for near-term easing while persistent core inflation above the 2% target—amplified by tariff effects and Middle East supply risks—has elevated the chance of a hawkish hold. With the September FOMC meeting set to include updated economic projections, market pricing reflects consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current federal funds rate range absent clearer disinflation signals. Modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks from ongoing geopolitical and trade developments, while deeper cuts remain sidelined given the absence of labor market deterioration.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$179,799Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong May jobs data showing 172,000 payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment has reinforced trader views of a resilient labor market, reducing pressure for near-term easing while persistent core inflation above the 2% target—amplified by tariff effects and Middle East supply risks—has elevated the chance of a hawkish hold. With the September FOMC meeting set to include updated economic projections, market pricing reflects consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current federal funds rate range absent clearer disinflation signals. Modest probabilities attached to a 25 basis point hike capture upside inflation risks from ongoing geopolitical and trade developments, while deeper cuts remain sidelined given the absence of labor market deterioration.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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