Elevated inflation readings, driven by persistent energy price pressures and supply disruptions tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and recent strong employment gains, form the primary drivers behind current trader positioning. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent, market participants view these factors as supporting a hold through the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 60.5 percent consensus for no change. A notable 29.5 percent probability on a 25 basis point hike captures risks from sticky core inflation metrics and upward revisions in forecasts. Lower odds on cuts stem from limited evidence of cooling price pressures or labor market softening within the resolution window, though incoming data through summer could still shift assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 56%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 10.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$372,851 Vol.
$372,851 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
56%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 56%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 10.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$372,851 Vol.
$372,851 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$58,738 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$71,264 Vol.
10%
No change
$93,301 Vol.
56%
25 bps increase
$83,317 Vol.
30%
50+ bps increase
$66,254 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, driven by persistent energy price pressures and supply disruptions tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and recent strong employment gains, form the primary drivers behind current trader positioning. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent, market participants view these factors as supporting a hold through the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 60.5 percent consensus for no change. A notable 29.5 percent probability on a 25 basis point hike captures risks from sticky core inflation metrics and upward revisions in forecasts. Lower odds on cuts stem from limited evidence of cooling price pressures or labor market softening within the resolution window, though incoming data through summer could still shift assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$372,851Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, driven by persistent energy price pressures and supply disruptions tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and recent strong employment gains, form the primary drivers behind current trader positioning. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent, market participants view these factors as supporting a hold through the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 60.5 percent consensus for no change. A notable 29.5 percent probability on a 25 basis point hike captures risks from sticky core inflation metrics and upward revisions in forecasts. Lower odds on cuts stem from limited evidence of cooling price pressures or labor market softening within the resolution window, though incoming data through summer could still shift assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$372,851Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, driven by persistent energy price pressures and supply disruptions tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and recent strong employment gains, form the primary drivers behind current trader positioning. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent, market participants view these factors as supporting a hold through the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 60.5 percent consensus for no change. A notable 29.5 percent probability on a 25 basis point hike captures risks from sticky core inflation metrics and upward revisions in forecasts. Lower odds on cuts stem from limited evidence of cooling price pressures or labor market softening within the resolution window, though incoming data through summer could still shift assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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