U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, substantially extending breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments that now place a potential weapon roughly nine to twelve months away. The IAEA has reported no verified resumption of uranium enrichment since the attacks, limited inspector access to affected sites and stockpiles, and no evidence of a structured weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including Oman-mediated discussions on stockpile dilution, enrichment caps, and sanctions relief, reinforce constraints. These military and diplomatic factors underpin trader consensus favoring resolution to "No" before the end of 2026.