Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability for "No" on Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, alongside ongoing bilateral negotiations. IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's restricted access to facilities and an underground stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, but no verified weaponization progress amid post-strike disruptions. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump's April 17 announcement of Iran's indefinite suspension of enrichment and Pakistan-mediated talks urging IAEA inspections, have bolstered de-escalation. Internal Iranian factional debates on pausing enrichment for up to five years further diminish breakout risks, though late-breaking escalations or covert reconstitution could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$539,154 वॉल्यूम
$539,154 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
$539,154 वॉल्यूम
$539,154 वॉल्यूम
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability for "No" on Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027, driven by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 that damaged key enrichment sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, alongside ongoing bilateral negotiations. IAEA reports from late February highlight Iran's restricted access to facilities and an underground stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, but no verified weaponization progress amid post-strike disruptions. Recent diplomatic signals, including President Trump's April 17 announcement of Iran's indefinite suspension of enrichment and Pakistan-mediated talks urging IAEA inspections, have bolstered de-escalation. Internal Iranian factional debates on pausing enrichment for up to five years further diminish breakout risks, though late-breaking escalations or covert reconstitution could shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न