Putin’s continued hold on the Russian presidency keeps implied probabilities for his removal by mid-2027 near 10 percent and by year-end 2026 near 3 percent on prediction markets. Recent September 2026 State Duma elections delivered a commanding majority to United Russia, framed by the Kremlin as endorsement of its military agenda, while tightening elite cohesion and suppressing opposition. Ongoing advances in Ukraine, coupled with Putin’s public statements rejecting negotiations with “terrorists” and emphasizing battlefield gains, reinforce his central role without visible succession planning. Constitutional mechanisms would trigger an acting president and snap vote only upon resignation or incapacitation, yet no credible signals of either have emerged. Traders price in structural barriers including loyal security services and the absence of organized alternatives, with any shift requiring major escalation or elite fracture not evident in current reporting.