Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$196,569समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$196,569समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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