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icon for 2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?

2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?

icon for 2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?

2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?

दिस 31

दिस 31

हाँ

8% संभावना
Polymarket

$196,569 वॉल्यूम

हाँ

8% संभावना
Polymarket

$196,569 वॉल्यूम

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and subsequent reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran would require approximately nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose to pursue one, pushing any potential timeline beyond 2027 absent major undetected recovery efforts. Ongoing diplomatic channels and military deterrence have further constrained options, with no verified preparations for a nuclear test observed. These developments underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$196,569
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and subsequent reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran would require approximately nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose to pursue one, pushing any potential timeline beyond 2027 absent major undetected recovery efforts. Ongoing diplomatic channels and military deterrence have further constrained options, with no verified preparations for a nuclear test observed. These developments underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$196,569
समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?" Polymarket पर 2 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, क्या ईरान 2027 से पहले परमाणु परीक्षण करेगा? 8% (8¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है।

आज तक, "2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?" ने कुल $196.6K ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Nov 5, 2025 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।

"2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 2 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।

यह एक खुला बाज़ार है। "2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?" के लिए वर्तमान अग्रणी "क्या ईरान 2027 से पहले परमाणु परीक्षण करेगा?" केवल 8% पर है। किसी भी परिणाम के पास मज़बूत बहुमत नहीं होने से, ट्रेडर इसे अत्यधिक अनिश्चित मानते हैं।

"2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।