Iran's nuclear program has sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, destroying or disabling the majority of centrifuges, enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, and related infrastructure. IAEA inspectors have had no access since mid-2025, leaving the status of remaining 60% enriched uranium stocks and any reconstitution efforts unverified, while recent satellite imagery shows renewed but limited activity at damaged weapons-related sites like Minzadayi. Iranian officials continue to deny weapons intent amid public debate and diplomatic signals toward possible enrichment limits in exchange for sanctions relief. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no test before 2027 reflects these setbacks and the multi-month timeline typically required for weaponization and testing. A sudden policy shift, undetected underground progress, or major escalation could still alter the outlook within the narrow window.