Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025, followed by additional operations in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting through spring 2026 confirms extensive damage, restricted inspector access, and no nuclear detonation or weapons-related testing, while noting unresolved safeguards issues and lost continuity over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Ongoing diplomatic channels and Iran's stated civilian focus persist amid heightened international monitoring, with seismic activity near sites verified as natural rather than tests. These verified setbacks underpin the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$201,526 वॉल्यूम
$201,526 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$201,526 वॉल्यूम
$201,526 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025, followed by additional operations in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting through spring 2026 confirms extensive damage, restricted inspector access, and no nuclear detonation or weapons-related testing, while noting unresolved safeguards issues and lost continuity over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Ongoing diplomatic channels and Iran's stated civilian focus persist amid heightened international monitoring, with seismic activity near sites verified as natural rather than tests. These verified setbacks underpin the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$201,526समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025, followed by additional operations in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting through spring 2026 confirms extensive damage, restricted inspector access, and no nuclear detonation or weapons-related testing, while noting unresolved safeguards issues and lost continuity over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Ongoing diplomatic channels and Iran's stated civilian focus persist amid heightened international monitoring, with seismic activity near sites verified as natural rather than tests. These verified setbacks underpin the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$201,526समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025, followed by additional operations in early 2026, have significantly degraded enrichment infrastructure and pushed back breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting through spring 2026 confirms extensive damage, restricted inspector access, and no nuclear detonation or weapons-related testing, while noting unresolved safeguards issues and lost continuity over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Ongoing diplomatic channels and Iran's stated civilian focus persist amid heightened international monitoring, with seismic activity near sites verified as natural rather than tests. These verified setbacks underpin the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न