**US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and subsequent reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran would require approximately nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose to pursue one, pushing any potential timeline beyond 2027 absent major undetected recovery efforts. Ongoing diplomatic channels and military deterrence have further constrained options, with no verified preparations for a nuclear test observed. These developments underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
$196,569 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and subsequent reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran would require approximately nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose to pursue one, pushing any potential timeline beyond 2027 absent major undetected recovery efforts. Ongoing diplomatic channels and military deterrence have further constrained options, with no verified preparations for a nuclear test observed. These developments underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$196,569समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and subsequent reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran would require approximately nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose to pursue one, pushing any potential timeline beyond 2027 absent major undetected recovery efforts. Ongoing diplomatic channels and military deterrence have further constrained options, with no verified preparations for a nuclear test observed. These developments underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$196,569समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment and leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors lost access to affected sites after the initial strikes, and subsequent reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran would require approximately nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it chose to pursue one, pushing any potential timeline beyond 2027 absent major undetected recovery efforts. Ongoing diplomatic channels and military deterrence have further constrained options, with no verified preparations for a nuclear test observed. These developments underpin trader consensus that a test before 2027 remains unlikely.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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