Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirming that recent US-Israeli strikes inflicted only limited new damage to Tehran's nuclear infrastructure, preserving a 9-12 month timeline to a weapon that extends past year-end. Prior operations like 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated aboveground enrichment sites at Natanz, with IAEA reports noting no radiation spikes or verified weaponization activities despite restricted access to damaged facilities. De-escalation signals—including paused US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's April peace proposals linking sanctions relief to delayed nuclear talks—further diminish incentives for provocative testing amid ongoing diplomatic pressures. Late developments like scandals or regime shifts could still shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$189,905 वॉल्यूम
$189,905 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$189,905 वॉल्यूम
$189,905 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirming that recent US-Israeli strikes inflicted only limited new damage to Tehran's nuclear infrastructure, preserving a 9-12 month timeline to a weapon that extends past year-end. Prior operations like 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated aboveground enrichment sites at Natanz, with IAEA reports noting no radiation spikes or verified weaponization activities despite restricted access to damaged facilities. De-escalation signals—including paused US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's April peace proposals linking sanctions relief to delayed nuclear talks—further diminish incentives for provocative testing amid ongoing diplomatic pressures. Late developments like scandals or regime shifts could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$189,905समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirming that recent US-Israeli strikes inflicted only limited new damage to Tehran's nuclear infrastructure, preserving a 9-12 month timeline to a weapon that extends past year-end. Prior operations like 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated aboveground enrichment sites at Natanz, with IAEA reports noting no radiation spikes or verified weaponization activities despite restricted access to damaged facilities. De-escalation signals—including paused US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's April peace proposals linking sanctions relief to delayed nuclear talks—further diminish incentives for provocative testing amid ongoing diplomatic pressures. Late developments like scandals or regime shifts could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$189,905समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirming that recent US-Israeli strikes inflicted only limited new damage to Tehran's nuclear infrastructure, preserving a 9-12 month timeline to a weapon that extends past year-end. Prior operations like 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated aboveground enrichment sites at Natanz, with IAEA reports noting no radiation spikes or verified weaponization activities despite restricted access to damaged facilities. De-escalation signals—including paused US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's April peace proposals linking sanctions relief to delayed nuclear talks—further diminish incentives for provocative testing amid ongoing diplomatic pressures. Late developments like scandals or regime shifts could still shift odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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