Israel’s October 27, 2026, election produced a hung Knesset, with Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc securing 53 of 120 seats—eight short of a majority—while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot took 48 and Arab parties won a record 19. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister during ongoing coalition talks and presidential consultations, with the new Knesset set to convene November 10. Neither bloc has a straightforward path to 61 seats without Arab parties, whom Eisenkot has signaled he will exclude, raising the prospect of prolonged negotiations, a unity government, or fresh elections in 2027. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices these dynamics as elevating the chance Netanyahu departs by mid-2027, while still assigning meaningful probability he survives longer as caretaker amid the deadlock.