**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and islands in September 2026 have tightened control over approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting many operators to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and sharply reducing tanker and cargo transits.** No international authority has declared the strait formally closed, and limited traffic persists, often with AIS transponders off. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming advances toward Dhubab, Mokha, and Mayyun Island, yet Houthi statements reject these gains and assert continued hold over key positions. Conflicting claims remain unverified amid ongoing clashes. With the Strait of Hormuz already closed, the Bab el-Mandeb has become a critical alternative route for regional energy exports, sustaining elevated risk premiums even as some shipping resumes. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing points to December 31 as the leading outcome, indicating expectations that full effective closure remains uncertain pending military developments or de-escalation.