**Houthi forces seized key coastal positions and islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in September 2026, including Mokha, Dhubab, and Perim (Mayyun) Island, after declaring a blockade on Saudi-linked shipping in July.** This followed broader regional escalation tied to the Iran conflict and prior Red Sea attacks, sharply reducing tanker transits (down ~26% in recent weeks per satellite data) as operators rerouted vessels or sailed with AIS off. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October ("Operation Yemen Dawn"), claiming recapture of coastal districts and the strait area, but Houthi statements dispute control of the islands and key points, with both sides reporting ongoing clashes and unverified territorial claims. Ongoing missile and drone threats persist, keeping traffic disrupted despite no formal closure declaration. Trader views hinge on whether ground control shifts allow sustained passage for non-targeted vessels or if attacks and uncertainty maintain effective restrictions through the resolution window.