Recent fighting in Yemen has kept the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under elevated risk without a formal closure. Iran-backed Houthi forces seized key coastal positions and islands including Mayyun in September 2026 and announced a blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping, sharply reducing tanker and cargo transits while prompting rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October, claiming control of Dhubab district and areas overlooking the strait, though Houthis dispute these gains and continue missile and drone strikes on Saudi targets. Independent assessments show ongoing but limited traffic with some vessels operating dark; no authority has declared the waterway closed. Trader odds reflect the balance between persistent Houthi leverage and the uncertain durability of the government push.