**The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the agreement's linkage to Saudi normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords, a condition repeatedly emphasized by President Trump since the July 2026 signing.** The 123 agreement and bilateral safeguards pact, transmitted to Congress in late August, face a mandatory 90-day review period that extends into November, during which lawmakers could pass a disapproval resolution. Saudi Arabia has shown no movement toward recognition of Israel, and administration statements indicate the deal will not advance without it. Additional factors include ongoing nonproliferation concerns over the absence of the IAEA Additional Protocol, a required two-year joint study before any enrichment decisions, and limited time remaining in 2026 for full implementation. These structural and diplomatic hurdles have kept trader consensus firmly against entry into force this calendar year.