Amid a fragile Gaza ceasefire holding through March 2026 despite sporadic Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling that have killed dozens, trader consensus reflects low expectations for a major ground offensive, as IDF forces prioritize a large-scale invasion of southern Lebanon against Hezbollah—launched mid-month—and responses to Iranian missile barrages. February plans for renewed Gaza operations to forcibly disarm Hamas remain paused, with resources stretched across multiple fronts. A US proposal delivered March 26 demands Hamas's political surrender and disarmament, boosting diplomatic prospects. Upcoming talks, potentially influenced by Trump administration pressure, and institutional strains could delay or avert escalation before the market's resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$492,369 Vol.
Oct 31, 2025
31 mars 2026
2%
30 juin
16%
31 décembre
38%
$492,369 Vol.
31 mars 2026
$320,609 Vol.
2%
30 juin
$8,067 Vol.
16%
31 décembre
$12,806 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid a fragile Gaza ceasefire holding through March 2026 despite sporadic Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling that have killed dozens, trader consensus reflects low expectations for a major ground offensive, as IDF forces prioritize a large-scale invasion of southern Lebanon against Hezbollah—launched mid-month—and responses to Iranian missile barrages. February plans for renewed Gaza operations to forcibly disarm Hamas remain paused, with resources stretched across multiple fronts. A US proposal delivered March 26 demands Hamas's political surrender and disarmament, boosting diplomatic prospects. Upcoming talks, potentially influenced by Trump administration pressure, and institutional strains could delay or avert escalation before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$492,369Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025Marché ouvert
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid a fragile Gaza ceasefire holding through March 2026 despite sporadic Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling that have killed dozens, trader consensus reflects low expectations for a major ground offensive, as IDF forces prioritize a large-scale invasion of southern Lebanon against Hezbollah—launched mid-month—and responses to Iranian missile barrages. February plans for renewed Gaza operations to forcibly disarm Hamas remain paused, with resources stretched across multiple fronts. A US proposal delivered March 26 demands Hamas's political surrender and disarmament, boosting diplomatic prospects. Upcoming talks, potentially influenced by Trump administration pressure, and institutional strains could delay or avert escalation before the market's resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$492,369Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025Marché ouvert
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile Gaza ceasefire holding through March 2026 despite sporadic Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling that have killed dozens, trader consensus reflects low expectations for a major ground offensive, as IDF forces prioritize a large-scale invasion of southern Lebanon against Hezbollah—launched mid-month—and responses to Iranian missile barrages. February plans for renewed Gaza operations to forcibly disarm Hamas remain paused, with resources stretched across multiple fronts. A US proposal delivered March 26 demands Hamas's political surrender and disarmament, boosting diplomatic prospects. Upcoming talks, potentially influenced by Trump administration pressure, and institutional strains could delay or avert escalation before the market's resolution date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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