Trader consensus gives Avengers: Doomsday a commanding 92.6% implied probability of outgrossing Dune: Part Three on their clashing December 18 opening weekends, driven by Marvel's unmatched Avengers track record—Infinity War's $257M and Endgame's $357M domestics dwarf Dune: Part Two's $82M debut—fueled further by Robert Downey Jr.'s blockbuster draw as Doctor Doom and the Russo brothers' proven event-film direction. Recent Dune: Part Three teaser trailer buzz from March 17 has yet to dent this lead, despite Warner Bros. prioritizing IMAX screens in the "Dunesday" standoff. Realistic challenges include Dune's critical momentum exploding via viral presales, superior premium-format access boosting ticket averages, or MCU fatigue from recent underperformers eroding turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDune 3 ou Avengers : Doomsday rapporteront-ils plus lors de leur premier week-end ?
Dune 3 ou Avengers : Doomsday rapporteront-ils plus lors de leur premier week-end ?
Dune 3
$33,441 Vol.
$33,441 Vol.
Dec 20, 2026
Dune 3
$33,441 Vol.
$33,441 Vol.
Dec 20, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Trader consensus gives Avengers: Doomsday a commanding 92.6% implied probability of outgrossing Dune: Part Three on their clashing December 18 opening weekends, driven by Marvel's unmatched Avengers track record—Infinity War's $257M and Endgame's $357M domestics dwarf Dune: Part Two's $82M debut—fueled further by Robert Downey Jr.'s blockbuster draw as Doctor Doom and the Russo brothers' proven event-film direction. Recent Dune: Part Three teaser trailer buzz from March 17 has yet to dent this lead, despite Warner Bros. prioritizing IMAX screens in the "Dunesday" standoff. Realistic challenges include Dune's critical momentum exploding via viral presales, superior premium-format access boosting ticket averages, or MCU fatigue from recent underperformers eroding turnout.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Marché ouvert : Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$33,441Date de fin
Dec 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Trader consensus gives Avengers: Doomsday a commanding 92.6% implied probability of outgrossing Dune: Part Three on their clashing December 18 opening weekends, driven by Marvel's unmatched Avengers track record—Infinity War's $257M and Endgame's $357M domestics dwarf Dune: Part Two's $82M debut—fueled further by Robert Downey Jr.'s blockbuster draw as Doctor Doom and the Russo brothers' proven event-film direction. Recent Dune: Part Three teaser trailer buzz from March 17 has yet to dent this lead, despite Warner Bros. prioritizing IMAX screens in the "Dunesday" standoff. Realistic challenges include Dune's critical momentum exploding via viral presales, superior premium-format access boosting ticket averages, or MCU fatigue from recent underperformers eroding turnout.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Volume
$33,441Date de fin
Dec 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus gives Avengers: Doomsday a commanding 92.6% implied probability of outgrossing Dune: Part Three on their clashing December 18 opening weekends, driven by Marvel's unmatched Avengers track record—Infinity War's $257M and Endgame's $357M domestics dwarf Dune: Part Two's $82M debut—fueled further by Robert Downey Jr.'s blockbuster draw as Doctor Doom and the Russo brothers' proven event-film direction. Recent Dune: Part Three teaser trailer buzz from March 17 has yet to dent this lead, despite Warner Bros. prioritizing IMAX screens in the "Dunesday" standoff. Realistic challenges include Dune's critical momentum exploding via viral presales, superior premium-format access boosting ticket averages, or MCU fatigue from recent underperformers eroding turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes