Project Hail Mary's implied 99.5% probability as the weekend's top-grossing film stems from its blockbuster positioning as Amazon MGM's tentpole sci-fi adaptation of Andy Weir's bestseller, starring Ryan Gosling fresh off Barbie's billion-dollar success and boasting strong pre-sale tracking akin to The Martian's $54M debut. Industry projections peg its opening at $80-100M, dwarfing competitors amid favorable release timing post-Easter. Trader consensus reflects verified box office forecasts from Deadline and Exhibitor Relations, bolstered by positive test screenings and viral trailer buzz. An upset would require unprecedented word-of-mouth explosion for underdogs like Hoppers or They Will Kill You—perhaps via TikTok virality or review bombs tanking Hail Mary—or severe weather disrupting turnout, though historical precedents for such flips are rare in mismatched matchups.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest grossing movie this weekend (March 27)
Highest grossing movie this weekend (March 27)
Project Hail Mary 99.4%
They Will Kill You <1%
Hoppers <1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come <1%
$32,637 Vol.
$32,637 Vol.
Project Hail Mary
99%
They Will Kill You
<1%
Hoppers
<1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
<1%
Reminders of Him
<1%
Project Hail Mary 99.4%
They Will Kill You <1%
Hoppers <1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come <1%
$32,637 Vol.
$32,637 Vol.
Project Hail Mary
99%
They Will Kill You
<1%
Hoppers
<1%
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
<1%
Reminders of Him
<1%
If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Project Hail Mary's implied 99.5% probability as the weekend's top-grossing film stems from its blockbuster positioning as Amazon MGM's tentpole sci-fi adaptation of Andy Weir's bestseller, starring Ryan Gosling fresh off Barbie's billion-dollar success and boasting strong pre-sale tracking akin to The Martian's $54M debut. Industry projections peg its opening at $80-100M, dwarfing competitors amid favorable release timing post-Easter. Trader consensus reflects verified box office forecasts from Deadline and Exhibitor Relations, bolstered by positive test screenings and viral trailer buzz. An upset would require unprecedented word-of-mouth explosion for underdogs like Hoppers or They Will Kill You—perhaps via TikTok virality or review bombs tanking Hail Mary—or severe weather disrupting turnout, though historical precedents for such flips are rare in mismatched matchups.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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