Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 73.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its MCU event-film scale, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return generating massive buzz, and prime December 18 holiday release—echoing Endgame's $357 million domestic debut—despite ceding IMAX screens to Dune: Messiah on the same day. Recent audience tracking released in the past 24 hours shows stronger theater interest in Doomsday over Dune: Part Three, reinforcing its frontrunner status amid the high-stakes clash. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds 11.5% after its March 18 trailer shattered records with 1 billion views in four days, signaling summer blockbuster potential on July 31 akin to No Way Home's $260 million open. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 (June 19 family draw) and others lag due to narrower appeal and earlier slots, with early presales and additional trailers as key near-term catalysts amid volatile box office dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQuel film a le plus grand week-end d'ouverture en 2026 ?
Quel film a le plus grand week-end d'ouverture en 2026 ?
Avengers : Doomsday 74%
Spider-Man : Un jour nouveau 12%
Toy Story 5 2.6%
Dune : Messiah 2.3%
$1,185,467 Vol.
$1,185,467 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers : Doomsday
74%
Spider-Man : Un jour nouveau
12%
Toy Story 5
3%
Dune : Messiah
2%
L’Odyssée
2%
Michael
1%
Star Wars : The Mandalorian et Grogu
1%
Hunger Games : L'Aube de la Moisson
<1%
Scream 7
<1%
Projet Hail Mary
<1%
Avengers : Doomsday 74%
Spider-Man : Un jour nouveau 12%
Toy Story 5 2.6%
Dune : Messiah 2.3%
$1,185,467 Vol.
$1,185,467 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers : Doomsday
$90,463 Vol.
74%
Spider-Man : Un jour nouveau
$26,788 Vol.
12%
Toy Story 5
$173,926 Vol.
3%
Dune : Messiah
$81,306 Vol.
2%
L’Odyssée
$136,523 Vol.
2%
Michael
$482,805 Vol.
1%
Star Wars : The Mandalorian et Grogu
$28,146 Vol.
1%
Hunger Games : L'Aube de la Moisson
$0 Vol.
<1%
Scream 7
$42,654 Vol.
<1%
Projet Hail Mary
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 73.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its MCU event-film scale, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return generating massive buzz, and prime December 18 holiday release—echoing Endgame's $357 million domestic debut—despite ceding IMAX screens to Dune: Messiah on the same day. Recent audience tracking released in the past 24 hours shows stronger theater interest in Doomsday over Dune: Part Three, reinforcing its frontrunner status amid the high-stakes clash. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds 11.5% after its March 18 trailer shattered records with 1 billion views in four days, signaling summer blockbuster potential on July 31 akin to No Way Home's $260 million open. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 (June 19 family draw) and others lag due to narrower appeal and earlier slots, with early presales and additional trailers as key near-term catalysts amid volatile box office dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,185,467Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 73.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its MCU event-film scale, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return generating massive buzz, and prime December 18 holiday release—echoing Endgame's $357 million domestic debut—despite ceding IMAX screens to Dune: Messiah on the same day. Recent audience tracking released in the past 24 hours shows stronger theater interest in Doomsday over Dune: Part Three, reinforcing its frontrunner status amid the high-stakes clash. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds 11.5% after its March 18 trailer shattered records with 1 billion views in four days, signaling summer blockbuster potential on July 31 akin to No Way Home's $260 million open. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 (June 19 family draw) and others lag due to narrower appeal and earlier slots, with early presales and additional trailers as key near-term catalysts amid volatile box office dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,185,467Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday at 73.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, driven by its MCU event-film scale, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return generating massive buzz, and prime December 18 holiday release—echoing Endgame's $357 million domestic debut—despite ceding IMAX screens to Dune: Messiah on the same day. Recent audience tracking released in the past 24 hours shows stronger theater interest in Doomsday over Dune: Part Three, reinforcing its frontrunner status amid the high-stakes clash. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds 11.5% after its March 18 trailer shattered records with 1 billion views in four days, signaling summer blockbuster potential on July 31 akin to No Way Home's $260 million open. Lower-tier contenders like Toy Story 5 (June 19 family draw) and others lag due to narrower appeal and earlier slots, with early presales and additional trailers as key near-term catalysts amid volatile box office dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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