Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard as of March 26, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds #1 at 1504 Elo and the standard Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 with 1500 Elo—ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at #3 (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491 preliminary). This positioning stems from Claude's demonstrated edge in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks via crowdsourced blind evaluations, bolstered by recent model optimizations emphasizing chain-of-thought capabilities. While strong vote momentum supports this lock, realistic challenges include a late surge from xAI's Grok updates or Google's Gemini previews gaining traction in final days before March 31 resolution, or leaderboard adjustments for preliminary scores.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$528,686 Vol.
$528,686 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$528,686 Vol.
$528,686 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,883 Vol.
98%
xAI
$54,107 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$152,800 Vol.
<1%
$122,141 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$39,630 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard as of March 26, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds #1 at 1504 Elo and the standard Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 with 1500 Elo—ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at #3 (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491 preliminary). This positioning stems from Claude's demonstrated edge in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks via crowdsourced blind evaluations, bolstered by recent model optimizations emphasizing chain-of-thought capabilities. While strong vote momentum supports this lock, realistic challenges include a late surge from xAI's Grok updates or Google's Gemini previews gaining traction in final days before March 31 resolution, or leaderboard adjustments for preliminary scores.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$528,686Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard as of March 26, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds #1 at 1504 Elo and the standard Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 with 1500 Elo—ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at #3 (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491 preliminary). This positioning stems from Claude's demonstrated edge in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks via crowdsourced blind evaluations, bolstered by recent model optimizations emphasizing chain-of-thought capabilities. While strong vote momentum supports this lock, realistic challenges include a late surge from xAI's Grok updates or Google's Gemini previews gaining traction in final days before March 31 resolution, or leaderboard adjustments for preliminary scores.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$528,686Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at 97.5% implied probability for possessing the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by the latest LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard as of March 26, where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking holds #1 at 1504 Elo and the standard Claude Opus 4.6 sits at #2 with 1500 Elo—ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at #3 (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491 preliminary). This positioning stems from Claude's demonstrated edge in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks via crowdsourced blind evaluations, bolstered by recent model optimizations emphasizing chain-of-thought capabilities. While strong vote momentum supports this lock, realistic challenges include a late surge from xAI's Grok updates or Google's Gemini previews gaining traction in final days before March 31 resolution, or leaderboard adjustments for preliminary scores.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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