Polymarket traders are pricing a 45% implied probability for Tesla (TSLA) stock exceeding $400 by end-March 2026, reflecting bullish sentiment on autonomy monetization despite near-term EV headwinds. Current shares trade around $220 after a post-robotaxi event pullback, with Q3 delivery growth of 6% YoY underscoring margin pressure from price cuts and competition. Key catalysts include October 23 Q3 earnings for FSD/robotaxi updates, 2025 unsupervised autonomy rollout, and Cybertruck ramp-up targeting 250K units annually. Macro tailwinds from Fed rate cuts support growth stocks, but resolution hinges on sustained 20%+ delivery CAGR and energy storage beats versus analyst medians of $285.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQu'est-ce que Tesla (TSLA) frappera en mars 2026 ?
Qu'est-ce que Tesla (TSLA) frappera en mars 2026 ?
$246,152 Vol.
↑ 570 $
<1%
↑ 533 $
1%
↑ 503 $
1%
↑ 473 $
1%
↑ 450 $
2%
↑ 435 $
3%
↑ 420 $
9%
↓ 353 $
41%
↓ 330 $
10%
↓ 300 $
2%
↓ 263 $
1%
$246,152 Vol.
↑ 570 $
<1%
↑ 533 $
1%
↑ 503 $
1%
↑ 473 $
1%
↑ 450 $
2%
↑ 435 $
3%
↑ 420 $
9%
↓ 353 $
41%
↓ 330 $
10%
↓ 300 $
2%
↓ 263 $
1%
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Low" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a 45% implied probability for Tesla (TSLA) stock exceeding $400 by end-March 2026, reflecting bullish sentiment on autonomy monetization despite near-term EV headwinds. Current shares trade around $220 after a post-robotaxi event pullback, with Q3 delivery growth of 6% YoY underscoring margin pressure from price cuts and competition. Key catalysts include October 23 Q3 earnings for FSD/robotaxi updates, 2025 unsupervised autonomy rollout, and Cybertruck ramp-up targeting 250K units annually. Macro tailwinds from Fed rate cuts support growth stocks, but resolution hinges on sustained 20%+ delivery CAGR and energy storage beats versus analyst medians of $285.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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