Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Project Hail Mary grossing under $35 million in its third domestic weekend at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting the film's exceptional word-of-mouth—evidenced by a mere 32% drop to $54.5 million last weekend, surpassing Oppenheimer's hold—now clashing with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's massive Easter launch projected at $130-170 million. Strong legs from Ryan Gosling's star power and Andy Weir's fanbase have pushed domestic totals past $164 million in 10 days, but premium IMAX/PLF screen losses to the family blockbuster and seasonal competition cap upside, with 35-38 million at 32.5% as the next tier; final tallies lock Sunday evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour« Project Hail Mary » 3e box-office du week-end
« Project Hail Mary » 3e box-office du week-end
<35m 66%
35-38M 32%
38-41 M$ 9%
>41 M 8%
<35m
56%
35-38M
33%
38-41 M$
9%
>41 M
8%
<35m 66%
35-38M 32%
38-41 M$ 9%
>41 M 8%
<35m
56%
35-38M
33%
38-41 M$
9%
>41 M
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Project Hail Mary grossing under $35 million in its third domestic weekend at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting the film's exceptional word-of-mouth—evidenced by a mere 32% drop to $54.5 million last weekend, surpassing Oppenheimer's hold—now clashing with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's massive Easter launch projected at $130-170 million. Strong legs from Ryan Gosling's star power and Andy Weir's fanbase have pushed domestic totals past $164 million in 10 days, but premium IMAX/PLF screen losses to the family blockbuster and seasonal competition cap upside, with 35-38 million at 32.5% as the next tier; final tallies lock Sunday evening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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