NATO has not invoked Article 5 since the 2001 response to the September 11 attacks, and recent incidents such as the September 2025 Russian drone incursions into Polish and Estonian airspace triggered only Article 4 consultations and the subsequent Operation Eastern Sentry. Intelligence assessments, including from Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, indicate Russia lacks readiness for large-scale conflict with NATO before 2030, while hybrid probes and airspace violations continue below the collective-defense threshold. A very recent Russian drone strike on a Romanian apartment building prompted allied condemnation but no invocation, consistent with patterns of calibrated responses that avoid full Article 5 activation. Traders price the 88% probability on “No” around the view that no qualifying armed attack on alliance territory will occur before the end of 2026.