NATO traders price an 83.5% chance of no Article 5 invocation before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory meeting the collective defense threshold since its sole use after 9/11. A March 5 Iranian ballistic missile intercepted in Turkish airspace—prompting close NATO monitoring—saw Secretary General Mark Rutte explicitly rule out activation, underscoring deliberate ambiguity to deter adversaries without escalation. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains confined to non-member Ukraine, while Baltic and Polish border tensions show no spillover despite warnings. Surging European defense spending toward NATO's 5% target bolsters deterrence, with no major diplomatic or military catalysts in the past month signaling imminent risks through 2026.