Trader consensus implies a [XX]% probability that Meta (META) shares will close above the strike by March 31, fueled primarily by surging ad revenue from AI-powered recommendation systems like those in Reels and Advantage+, which drove Q4's 25% year-over-year growth to $40.1 billion, beating estimates. CEO Zuckerberg's emphasis on "Year of Efficiency" has trimmed costs, boosting margins despite $10B+ quarterly AI capex, while Llama 3's open-source release looms as a competitive edge against OpenAI and Google. Regulatory headwinds from EU DMA probes and TikTok rivalry cap upside, but election ad windfalls and no major catalysts until Q1 earnings in late April favor bulls; historical March META gains average +3%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$23,146 Vol.
540 $
90%
560 $
87%
580 $
76%
600 $
51%
620 $
31%
640 $
16%
660 $
5%
680 $
8%
700 $
10%
720 $
2%
740 $
9%
760 $
1%
780 $
1%
$23,146 Vol.
540 $
90%
560 $
87%
580 $
76%
600 $
51%
620 $
31%
640 $
16%
660 $
5%
680 $
8%
700 $
10%
720 $
2%
740 $
9%
760 $
1%
780 $
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a [XX]% probability that Meta (META) shares will close above the strike by March 31, fueled primarily by surging ad revenue from AI-powered recommendation systems like those in Reels and Advantage+, which drove Q4's 25% year-over-year growth to $40.1 billion, beating estimates. CEO Zuckerberg's emphasis on "Year of Efficiency" has trimmed costs, boosting margins despite $10B+ quarterly AI capex, while Llama 3's open-source release looms as a competitive edge against OpenAI and Google. Regulatory headwinds from EU DMA probes and TikTok rivalry cap upside, but election ad windfalls and no major catalysts until Q1 earnings in late April favor bulls; historical March META gains average +3%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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