Trader sentiment for elevated 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with the 1250+ outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, stems from an exceptionally active early season tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Preliminary reports reached 274 year-to-date through late March—January (23), February (55), and a surge to 196 in March—well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace of roughly 150–200 for the first quarter. Multiple March outbreaks, including the March 5–7 and 10–12 events yielding over 150 confirmed tornadoes with EF3 intensity, signal robust supercell and quasi-linear convective system activity amid fading La Niña conditions transitioning toward ENSO-neutral. This front-loaded vigor positions clusters around 1000–1249 (21–24%) as competitive, though preliminary tallies typically exceed final NWS-confirmed EF-scale ratings. Peak April–June remains ahead, with daily SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en 2026 ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en 2026 ?
1250+ 34%
1000–1049 24%
<950 13%
1050–1099 9%
$26,058 Vol.
$26,058 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<950
15%
950–999
24%
1000–1049
24%
1050–1099
24%
1100–1149
23%
1150–1199
9%
1200–1249
23%
1250+
38%
1250+ 34%
1000–1049 24%
<950 13%
1050–1099 9%
$26,058 Vol.
$26,058 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<950
$0 Vol.
15%
950–999
$0 Vol.
24%
1000–1049
$0 Vol.
24%
1050–1099
$0 Vol.
24%
1100–1149
$0 Vol.
23%
1150–1199
$0 Vol.
9%
1200–1249
$13,509 Vol.
23%
1250+
$12,549 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for elevated 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with the 1250+ outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, stems from an exceptionally active early season tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Preliminary reports reached 274 year-to-date through late March—January (23), February (55), and a surge to 196 in March—well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace of roughly 150–200 for the first quarter. Multiple March outbreaks, including the March 5–7 and 10–12 events yielding over 150 confirmed tornadoes with EF3 intensity, signal robust supercell and quasi-linear convective system activity amid fading La Niña conditions transitioning toward ENSO-neutral. This front-loaded vigor positions clusters around 1000–1249 (21–24%) as competitive, though preliminary tallies typically exceed final NWS-confirmed EF-scale ratings. Peak April–June remains ahead, with daily SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$26,058Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment for elevated 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with the 1250+ outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, stems from an exceptionally active early season tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Preliminary reports reached 274 year-to-date through late March—January (23), February (55), and a surge to 196 in March—well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace of roughly 150–200 for the first quarter. Multiple March outbreaks, including the March 5–7 and 10–12 events yielding over 150 confirmed tornadoes with EF3 intensity, signal robust supercell and quasi-linear convective system activity amid fading La Niña conditions transitioning toward ENSO-neutral. This front-loaded vigor positions clusters around 1000–1249 (21–24%) as competitive, though preliminary tallies typically exceed final NWS-confirmed EF-scale ratings. Peak April–June remains ahead, with daily SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$26,058Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for elevated 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with the 1250+ outcome leading at 37.5% implied probability, stems from an exceptionally active early season tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Preliminary reports reached 274 year-to-date through late March—January (23), February (55), and a surge to 196 in March—well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace of roughly 150–200 for the first quarter. Multiple March outbreaks, including the March 5–7 and 10–12 events yielding over 150 confirmed tornadoes with EF3 intensity, signal robust supercell and quasi-linear convective system activity amid fading La Niña conditions transitioning toward ENSO-neutral. This front-loaded vigor positions clusters around 1000–1249 (21–24%) as competitive, though preliminary tallies typically exceed final NWS-confirmed EF-scale ratings. Peak April–June remains ahead, with daily SPC convective outlooks key to refining trajectories amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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