Hezbollah has launched frequent rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks on Israeli military bases, troop positions, and northern settlements since its major escalation on March 2, 2026, targeting sites near Haifa in response to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Israel has countered with over 7,000 airstrikes, limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon since March 16, and expanded operations, reporting hundreds of Hezbollah fighters killed. On March 30, Hezbollah claimed fresh drone and missile strikes on northern Israel amid a fire at Haifa's oil refinery following interceptions. Absent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefires, the high-intensity cross-border exchanges continue to define trader consensus on near-term military action risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$2,438,605 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
66%
March 30
91%
March 31
83%
$2,438,605 Vol.
March 29
$32,878 Vol.
66%
March 30
$17,732 Vol.
91%
March 31
$8,843 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has launched frequent rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks on Israeli military bases, troop positions, and northern settlements since its major escalation on March 2, 2026, targeting sites near Haifa in response to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Israel has countered with over 7,000 airstrikes, limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon since March 16, and expanded operations, reporting hundreds of Hezbollah fighters killed. On March 30, Hezbollah claimed fresh drone and missile strikes on northern Israel amid a fire at Haifa's oil refinery following interceptions. Absent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefires, the high-intensity cross-border exchanges continue to define trader consensus on near-term military action risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$2,438,605Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has launched frequent rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks on Israeli military bases, troop positions, and northern settlements since its major escalation on March 2, 2026, targeting sites near Haifa in response to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Israel has countered with over 7,000 airstrikes, limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon since March 16, and expanded operations, reporting hundreds of Hezbollah fighters killed. On March 30, Hezbollah claimed fresh drone and missile strikes on northern Israel amid a fire at Haifa's oil refinery following interceptions. Absent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefires, the high-intensity cross-border exchanges continue to define trader consensus on near-term military action risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,438,605Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah has launched frequent rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks on Israeli military bases, troop positions, and northern settlements since its major escalation on March 2, 2026, targeting sites near Haifa in response to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Israel has countered with over 7,000 airstrikes, limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon since March 16, and expanded operations, reporting hundreds of Hezbollah fighters killed. On March 30, Hezbollah claimed fresh drone and missile strikes on northern Israel amid a fire at Haifa's oil refinery following interceptions. Absent diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefires, the high-intensity cross-border exchanges continue to define trader consensus on near-term military action risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes