Hezbollah has conducted near-daily rocket, drone, and mortar attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel since early March 2026, including a March 26 barrage that wounded four IDF soldiers, anchoring trader consensus on sustained escalation amid the group's alliance with Iran following Israeli strikes on Tehran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon—such as a massive March 27 raid—limited ground operations targeting Hezbollah strongholds, and infrastructure like Litani River bridges, killing over 400 fighters and nearly 1,100 overall per Lebanese reports. With opposition mounting in Israel to the Lebanon campaign and fears of wider invasion, upcoming diplomatic signals like potential U.S.-brokered ceasefires could de-escalate, though Hezbollah vows defiance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$537,599 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
96%
March 27
97%
March 28
72%
March 29
87%
March 30
91%
March 31
90%
$537,599 Vol.
March 22
$471,745 Vol.
96%
March 27
$21,661 Vol.
97%
March 28
$8,784 Vol.
72%
March 29
$2,718 Vol.
87%
March 30
$1,887 Vol.
91%
March 31
$824 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily rocket, drone, and mortar attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel since early March 2026, including a March 26 barrage that wounded four IDF soldiers, anchoring trader consensus on sustained escalation amid the group's alliance with Iran following Israeli strikes on Tehran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon—such as a massive March 27 raid—limited ground operations targeting Hezbollah strongholds, and infrastructure like Litani River bridges, killing over 400 fighters and nearly 1,100 overall per Lebanese reports. With opposition mounting in Israel to the Lebanon campaign and fears of wider invasion, upcoming diplomatic signals like potential U.S.-brokered ceasefires could de-escalate, though Hezbollah vows defiance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$537,599Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily rocket, drone, and mortar attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel since early March 2026, including a March 26 barrage that wounded four IDF soldiers, anchoring trader consensus on sustained escalation amid the group's alliance with Iran following Israeli strikes on Tehran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon—such as a massive March 27 raid—limited ground operations targeting Hezbollah strongholds, and infrastructure like Litani River bridges, killing over 400 fighters and nearly 1,100 overall per Lebanese reports. With opposition mounting in Israel to the Lebanon campaign and fears of wider invasion, upcoming diplomatic signals like potential U.S.-brokered ceasefires could de-escalate, though Hezbollah vows defiance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$537,599Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah has conducted near-daily rocket, drone, and mortar attacks on Israeli forces and positions in northern Israel since early March 2026, including a March 26 barrage that wounded four IDF soldiers, anchoring trader consensus on sustained escalation amid the group's alliance with Iran following Israeli strikes on Tehran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon—such as a massive March 27 raid—limited ground operations targeting Hezbollah strongholds, and infrastructure like Litani River bridges, killing over 400 fighters and nearly 1,100 overall per Lebanese reports. With opposition mounting in Israel to the Lebanon campaign and fears of wider invasion, upcoming diplomatic signals like potential U.S.-brokered ceasefires could de-escalate, though Hezbollah vows defiance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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