Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since early March 2026, including rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements like Nahariya and Haifa, with claims of 82 operations on March 26 alone amid Israel's limited ground incursions and airstrikes into southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. Escalation intensified over the past week, with Israeli troops advancing to establish a buffer zone and reporting over 700 Hezbollah fighters killed, while Hezbollah wounded Israeli soldiers in a mortar strike on March 26. Trader consensus reflects this active cross-border conflict, heightened by recent coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi missile and drone launches at Israel within the last day; de-escalation signals or diplomatic interventions could shift dynamics, though no ceasefire talks are confirmed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$1,560,395 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
99%
March 29
89%
March 30
85%
March 31
86%
$1,560,395 Vol.
March 22
$1,465,789 Vol.
99%
March 29
$4,893 Vol.
89%
March 30
$2,800 Vol.
85%
March 31
$1,613 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since early March 2026, including rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements like Nahariya and Haifa, with claims of 82 operations on March 26 alone amid Israel's limited ground incursions and airstrikes into southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. Escalation intensified over the past week, with Israeli troops advancing to establish a buffer zone and reporting over 700 Hezbollah fighters killed, while Hezbollah wounded Israeli soldiers in a mortar strike on March 26. Trader consensus reflects this active cross-border conflict, heightened by recent coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi missile and drone launches at Israel within the last day; de-escalation signals or diplomatic interventions could shift dynamics, though no ceasefire talks are confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,560,395Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Contesté
Résultat proposé: No
Contesté
Révision finale
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since early March 2026, including rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements like Nahariya and Haifa, with claims of 82 operations on March 26 alone amid Israel's limited ground incursions and airstrikes into southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. Escalation intensified over the past week, with Israeli troops advancing to establish a buffer zone and reporting over 700 Hezbollah fighters killed, while Hezbollah wounded Israeli soldiers in a mortar strike on March 26. Trader consensus reflects this active cross-border conflict, heightened by recent coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi missile and drone launches at Israel within the last day; de-escalation signals or diplomatic interventions could shift dynamics, though no ceasefire talks are confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,560,395Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Contesté
Résultat proposé: No
Contesté
Révision finale
Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since early March 2026, including rocket barrages, drone strikes, and missile attacks targeting IDF positions, bases, and northern settlements like Nahariya and Haifa, with claims of 82 operations on March 26 alone amid Israel's limited ground incursions and airstrikes into southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. Escalation intensified over the past week, with Israeli troops advancing to establish a buffer zone and reporting over 700 Hezbollah fighters killed, while Hezbollah wounded Israeli soldiers in a mortar strike on March 26. Trader consensus reflects this active cross-border conflict, heightened by recent coordinated Iran-Hezbollah-Houthi missile and drone launches at Israel within the last day; de-escalation signals or diplomatic interventions could shift dynamics, though no ceasefire talks are confirmed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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