Israel's announcement on March 24 of plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon by seizing territory from Hezbollah has driven recent escalations, with ground clashes killing two Israeli soldiers on March 26 and Hezbollah claiming drone and rocket strikes on Israeli positions as late as March 25. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the group's March 2 rocket barrages on northern Israel—launched in retaliation for Iranian losses—sparked renewed war, despite Lebanon's government banning such actions. Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and troop advances test Hezbollah's rearmament efforts, while unconfirmed reports of potential U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks add uncertainty; traders monitor Litani River crossings and diplomatic signals for shifts in military tempo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
$1,818,439 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 22
100%
March 29
95%
March 30
90%
March 31
90%
$1,818,439 Vol.
March 22
$1,720,360 Vol.
100%
March 29
$7,740 Vol.
95%
March 30
$3,759 Vol.
90%
March 31
$2,161 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's announcement on March 24 of plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon by seizing territory from Hezbollah has driven recent escalations, with ground clashes killing two Israeli soldiers on March 26 and Hezbollah claiming drone and rocket strikes on Israeli positions as late as March 25. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the group's March 2 rocket barrages on northern Israel—launched in retaliation for Iranian losses—sparked renewed war, despite Lebanon's government banning such actions. Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and troop advances test Hezbollah's rearmament efforts, while unconfirmed reports of potential U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks add uncertainty; traders monitor Litani River crossings and diplomatic signals for shifts in military tempo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,818,439Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's announcement on March 24 of plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon by seizing territory from Hezbollah has driven recent escalations, with ground clashes killing two Israeli soldiers on March 26 and Hezbollah claiming drone and rocket strikes on Israeli positions as late as March 25. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the group's March 2 rocket barrages on northern Israel—launched in retaliation for Iranian losses—sparked renewed war, despite Lebanon's government banning such actions. Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and troop advances test Hezbollah's rearmament efforts, while unconfirmed reports of potential U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks add uncertainty; traders monitor Litani River crossings and diplomatic signals for shifts in military tempo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,818,439Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Israel's announcement on March 24 of plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon by seizing territory from Hezbollah has driven recent escalations, with ground clashes killing two Israeli soldiers on March 26 and Hezbollah claiming drone and rocket strikes on Israeli positions as late as March 25. Over 400 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the group's March 2 rocket barrages on northern Israel—launched in retaliation for Iranian losses—sparked renewed war, despite Lebanon's government banning such actions. Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and troop advances test Hezbollah's rearmament efforts, while unconfirmed reports of potential U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks add uncertainty; traders monitor Litani River crossings and diplomatic signals for shifts in military tempo.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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