Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain—since early March 2026, targeting energy sites and US bases like Prince Sultan Air Base, have prompted Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to reverse prior restraint, granting expanded US basing access and signaling readiness for offensive action per recent WSJ and Reuters reports. Polymarket traders price modest 20% odds by April 15 and 27% by April 30 ($1.5K volume), reflecting hesitation amid low liquidity and diplomatic pushes like Trump administration ceasefire drafts, despite rhetoric from Saudi FM warning of retaliation if attacks persist. Surging Brent crude at $114/bbl embeds a hefty geopolitical risk premium, with Strait of Hormuz flows at risk; watch US-Iran talks and Iranian reprisals as key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGulf State military action against Iran by...?
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
22%
April 30
27%
$2,409 Vol.
April 15
$2,278 Vol.
22%
April 30
$131 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain—since early March 2026, targeting energy sites and US bases like Prince Sultan Air Base, have prompted Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to reverse prior restraint, granting expanded US basing access and signaling readiness for offensive action per recent WSJ and Reuters reports. Polymarket traders price modest 20% odds by April 15 and 27% by April 30 ($1.5K volume), reflecting hesitation amid low liquidity and diplomatic pushes like Trump administration ceasefire drafts, despite rhetoric from Saudi FM warning of retaliation if attacks persist. Surging Brent crude at $114/bbl embeds a hefty geopolitical risk premium, with Strait of Hormuz flows at risk; watch US-Iran talks and Iranian reprisals as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,409Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain—since early March 2026, targeting energy sites and US bases like Prince Sultan Air Base, have prompted Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to reverse prior restraint, granting expanded US basing access and signaling readiness for offensive action per recent WSJ and Reuters reports. Polymarket traders price modest 20% odds by April 15 and 27% by April 30 ($1.5K volume), reflecting hesitation amid low liquidity and diplomatic pushes like Trump administration ceasefire drafts, despite rhetoric from Saudi FM warning of retaliation if attacks persist. Surging Brent crude at $114/bbl embeds a hefty geopolitical risk premium, with Strait of Hormuz flows at risk; watch US-Iran talks and Iranian reprisals as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,409Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain—since early March 2026, targeting energy sites and US bases like Prince Sultan Air Base, have prompted Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to reverse prior restraint, granting expanded US basing access and signaling readiness for offensive action per recent WSJ and Reuters reports. Polymarket traders price modest 20% odds by April 15 and 27% by April 30 ($1.5K volume), reflecting hesitation amid low liquidity and diplomatic pushes like Trump administration ceasefire drafts, despite rhetoric from Saudi FM warning of retaliation if attacks persist. Surging Brent crude at $114/bbl embeds a hefty geopolitical risk premium, with Strait of Hormuz flows at risk; watch US-Iran talks and Iranian reprisals as key near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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