Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched institutional stability, economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone, and no active Article 50 withdrawal processes since Brexit. Recent developments, including Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat in Hungary—which curbed a key internal critic—and strong public support for EU membership in polls (e.g., 73% in Poland opposing Polexit), have reinforced unity amid populist surges in France and elsewhere. Legal and procedural barriers to full dissolution remain formidable, with no mechanism for rapid disbandment. Realistic shifts would require simultaneous exits by major members like France or Germany, triggered by unprecedented crises such as euro collapse or geopolitical rupture, though none loom imminently ahead of French presidential voting in 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
$163,876 Vol.
$163,876 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$163,876 Vol.
$163,876 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched institutional stability, economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone, and no active Article 50 withdrawal processes since Brexit. Recent developments, including Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat in Hungary—which curbed a key internal critic—and strong public support for EU membership in polls (e.g., 73% in Poland opposing Polexit), have reinforced unity amid populist surges in France and elsewhere. Legal and procedural barriers to full dissolution remain formidable, with no mechanism for rapid disbandment. Realistic shifts would require simultaneous exits by major members like France or Germany, triggered by unprecedented crises such as euro collapse or geopolitical rupture, though none loom imminently ahead of French presidential voting in 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$163,876Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched institutional stability, economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone, and no active Article 50 withdrawal processes since Brexit. Recent developments, including Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat in Hungary—which curbed a key internal critic—and strong public support for EU membership in polls (e.g., 73% in Poland opposing Polexit), have reinforced unity amid populist surges in France and elsewhere. Legal and procedural barriers to full dissolution remain formidable, with no mechanism for rapid disbandment. Realistic shifts would require simultaneous exits by major members like France or Germany, triggered by unprecedented crises such as euro collapse or geopolitical rupture, though none loom imminently ahead of French presidential voting in 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$163,876Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that the European Union will endure through 2026, driven by entrenched institutional stability, economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone, and no active Article 50 withdrawal processes since Brexit. Recent developments, including Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat in Hungary—which curbed a key internal critic—and strong public support for EU membership in polls (e.g., 73% in Poland opposing Polexit), have reinforced unity amid populist surges in France and elsewhere. Legal and procedural barriers to full dissolution remain formidable, with no mechanism for rapid disbandment. Realistic shifts would require simultaneous exits by major members like France or Germany, triggered by unprecedented crises such as euro collapse or geopolitical rupture, though none loom imminently ahead of French presidential voting in 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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