Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and no credible political momentum for mass exits amid high treaty barriers requiring unanimous ratification for structural changes. Recent EU actions, including regulatory approvals on sustainability rules and settlement reforms targeting 2027 implementation, underscore institutional continuity rather than fracture, while challenges like Hungary's vetoes or economic pressures in France and Germany have prompted internal reforms over withdrawal threats. With no major diplomatic ruptures or snap referendums in the past 30 days, the bloc's resilience persists; low-probability shifts could arise from cascading populist victories, severe debt crises, or escalated external conflicts prompting multiple Article 50 notifications before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
L'UE se dissout-elle avant 2027 ?
Oui
$159,675 Vol.
$159,675 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$159,675 Vol.
$159,675 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and no credible political momentum for mass exits amid high treaty barriers requiring unanimous ratification for structural changes. Recent EU actions, including regulatory approvals on sustainability rules and settlement reforms targeting 2027 implementation, underscore institutional continuity rather than fracture, while challenges like Hungary's vetoes or economic pressures in France and Germany have prompted internal reforms over withdrawal threats. With no major diplomatic ruptures or snap referendums in the past 30 days, the bloc's resilience persists; low-probability shifts could arise from cascading populist victories, severe debt crises, or escalated external conflicts prompting multiple Article 50 notifications before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$159,675Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and no credible political momentum for mass exits amid high treaty barriers requiring unanimous ratification for structural changes. Recent EU actions, including regulatory approvals on sustainability rules and settlement reforms targeting 2027 implementation, underscore institutional continuity rather than fracture, while challenges like Hungary's vetoes or economic pressures in France and Germany have prompted internal reforms over withdrawal threats. With no major diplomatic ruptures or snap referendums in the past 30 days, the bloc's resilience persists; low-probability shifts could arise from cascading populist victories, severe debt crises, or escalated external conflicts prompting multiple Article 50 notifications before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$159,675Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.3% for EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and no credible political momentum for mass exits amid high treaty barriers requiring unanimous ratification for structural changes. Recent EU actions, including regulatory approvals on sustainability rules and settlement reforms targeting 2027 implementation, underscore institutional continuity rather than fracture, while challenges like Hungary's vetoes or economic pressures in France and Germany have prompted internal reforms over withdrawal threats. With no major diplomatic ruptures or snap referendums in the past 30 days, the bloc's resilience persists; low-probability shifts could arise from cascading populist victories, severe debt crises, or escalated external conflicts prompting multiple Article 50 notifications before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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