Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's April 28 announcement to exit effective May 1 amid longstanding production quota frictions. Saudi Arabia's pivotal role, commanding over a third of cartel output, alongside recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings reaffirming steady quotas into mid-2026, sustains the group's ~44% global supply share and pricing influence, with Brent crude stable above $111 per barrel despite regional tensions. The high bar for formal disbandment—requiring core member exodus or Vienna headquarters closure—reinforces resilience, echoing survival of past departures like Qatar's in 2019. Potential catalysts include further defections (33% odds for another exit) or escalating non-compliance amid volatile oil fundamentals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's April 28 announcement to exit effective May 1 amid longstanding production quota frictions. Saudi Arabia's pivotal role, commanding over a third of cartel output, alongside recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings reaffirming steady quotas into mid-2026, sustains the group's ~44% global supply share and pricing influence, with Brent crude stable above $111 per barrel despite regional tensions. The high bar for formal disbandment—requiring core member exodus or Vienna headquarters closure—reinforces resilience, echoing survival of past departures like Qatar's in 2019. Potential catalysts include further defections (33% odds for another exit) or escalating non-compliance amid volatile oil fundamentals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,390Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's April 28 announcement to exit effective May 1 amid longstanding production quota frictions. Saudi Arabia's pivotal role, commanding over a third of cartel output, alongside recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings reaffirming steady quotas into mid-2026, sustains the group's ~44% global supply share and pricing influence, with Brent crude stable above $111 per barrel despite regional tensions. The high bar for formal disbandment—requiring core member exodus or Vienna headquarters closure—reinforces resilience, echoing survival of past departures like Qatar's in 2019. Potential catalysts include further defections (33% odds for another exit) or escalating non-compliance amid volatile oil fundamentals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,390Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, undeterred by the UAE's April 28 announcement to exit effective May 1 amid longstanding production quota frictions. Saudi Arabia's pivotal role, commanding over a third of cartel output, alongside recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings reaffirming steady quotas into mid-2026, sustains the group's ~44% global supply share and pricing influence, with Brent crude stable above $111 per barrel despite regional tensions. The high bar for formal disbandment—requiring core member exodus or Vienna headquarters closure—reinforces resilience, echoing survival of past departures like Qatar's in 2019. Potential catalysts include further defections (33% odds for another exit) or escalating non-compliance amid volatile oil fundamentals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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