Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including an 188,000 barrels-per-day increase implemented in June 2026, and reaffirmation of output targets through year-end underscore the group's ongoing coordination among core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced collective influence but failed to trigger broader fragmentation, with the next ministerial meeting scheduled for June 7 sustaining trader expectations of institutional continuity. Market-implied odds near 93.5% against dissolution reflect these shared incentives for oil price stability amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Potential challenges include further producer exits over quota disputes or escalated Middle East tensions that erode remaining cohesion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including an 188,000 barrels-per-day increase implemented in June 2026, and reaffirmation of output targets through year-end underscore the group's ongoing coordination among core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced collective influence but failed to trigger broader fragmentation, with the next ministerial meeting scheduled for June 7 sustaining trader expectations of institutional continuity. Market-implied odds near 93.5% against dissolution reflect these shared incentives for oil price stability amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Potential challenges include further producer exits over quota disputes or escalated Middle East tensions that erode remaining cohesion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,586Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including an 188,000 barrels-per-day increase implemented in June 2026, and reaffirmation of output targets through year-end underscore the group's ongoing coordination among core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced collective influence but failed to trigger broader fragmentation, with the next ministerial meeting scheduled for June 7 sustaining trader expectations of institutional continuity. Market-implied odds near 93.5% against dissolution reflect these shared incentives for oil price stability amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Potential challenges include further producer exits over quota disputes or escalated Middle East tensions that erode remaining cohesion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,586Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent OPEC+ production adjustments, including an 188,000 barrels-per-day increase implemented in June 2026, and reaffirmation of output targets through year-end underscore the group's ongoing coordination among core members such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. The UAE's May 2026 exit reduced collective influence but failed to trigger broader fragmentation, with the next ministerial meeting scheduled for June 7 sustaining trader expectations of institutional continuity. Market-implied odds near 93.5% against dissolution reflect these shared incentives for oil price stability amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Potential challenges include further producer exits over quota disputes or escalated Middle East tensions that erode remaining cohesion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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