OPEC maintains institutional continuity through regular ministerial meetings and quota decisions by core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others, even as the Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's May 2026 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+ prompted reaffirmations of commitment from remaining participants such as Algeria and Russia, with no evidence of coordinated withdrawals exceeding the threshold needed for dissolution by year-end. Trader consensus at 97.7% against dissolution reflects these patterns of operational stability and historical precedent for the group enduring membership shifts. Late developments such as multiple additional exits or an explicit disbandment agreement could still shift probabilities, though none appear imminent based on current diplomatic and production coordination.