Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55% implied probability to Anthropic releasing Claude 5 by June 30, 2026, reflecting recent leaks of "Claude Mythos 5" and "Sonnet 5 Fennec"—touted as frontier large language models with breakthrough coding and agent capabilities—but no official rollout since Claude Opus 4.6 launched February 5. Anthropic's accelerated cadence, with 4.x variants dropping every 2-4 months amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini, fuels optimism for a Q2 debut, though historical slips and safety evaluations temper near-term bets. Watch for developer previews or API benchmarks in coming weeks, which could catalyze a sentiment shift before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,935,228 Vol.
30 avril 2026
23%
31 mai 2026
26%
June 30, 2026
55%
$1,935,228 Vol.
30 avril 2026
23%
31 mai 2026
26%
June 30, 2026
55%
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 2, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 55% implied probability to Anthropic releasing Claude 5 by June 30, 2026, reflecting recent leaks of "Claude Mythos 5" and "Sonnet 5 Fennec"—touted as frontier large language models with breakthrough coding and agent capabilities—but no official rollout since Claude Opus 4.6 launched February 5. Anthropic's accelerated cadence, with 4.x variants dropping every 2-4 months amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini, fuels optimism for a Q2 debut, though historical slips and safety evaluations temper near-term bets. Watch for developer previews or API benchmarks in coming weeks, which could catalyze a sentiment shift before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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