Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven by a dramatic 11% surge to $111.54 per barrel on April 2 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz risks and U.S. President Trump's vows signaling potential escalation in Iran-related tensions, narrowing the WTI-Brent spread. June 2026 futures traded around $97.75, reflecting persistent supply disruption fears despite bearish long-term forecasts like J.P. Morgan's $60/bbl average. Recent EIA data showed U.S. inventories rising 5.45 million barrels, tempering gains, while OPEC+ weighs further output hikes at an upcoming meeting. Key catalysts include weekly inventory reports and geopolitical developments that could sustain elevated pricing or trigger pullbacks toward $77-$84 (14% odds).
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
À quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 67%
77 $–84 $ 14%
70 $ - 77 $ 7.3%
63 $-70 $ 6.1%
$100,827 Vol.
$100,827 Vol.
<42 $
2%
42 $-49 $
2%
49 $–56 $
2%
56 $-63 $
3%
63 $-70 $
6%
70 $ - 77 $
7%
77 $–84 $
14%
>84 $
67%
>84 $ 67%
77 $–84 $ 14%
70 $ - 77 $ 7.3%
63 $-70 $ 6.1%
$100,827 Vol.
$100,827 Vol.
<42 $
2%
42 $-49 $
2%
49 $–56 $
2%
56 $-63 $
3%
63 $-70 $
6%
70 $ - 77 $
7%
77 $–84 $
14%
>84 $
67%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, driven by a dramatic 11% surge to $111.54 per barrel on April 2 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz risks and U.S. President Trump's vows signaling potential escalation in Iran-related tensions, narrowing the WTI-Brent spread. June 2026 futures traded around $97.75, reflecting persistent supply disruption fears despite bearish long-term forecasts like J.P. Morgan's $60/bbl average. Recent EIA data showed U.S. inventories rising 5.45 million barrels, tempering gains, while OPEC+ weighs further output hikes at an upcoming meeting. Key catalysts include weekly inventory reports and geopolitical developments that could sustain elevated pricing or trigger pullbacks toward $77-$84 (14% odds).
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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