Iran has secured full participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup as one of Asia’s top qualifiers, with Team Melli already contesting group-stage matches in the co-hosted tournament across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. FIFA leadership has repeatedly affirmed the team’s status, players secured U.S. visas, and training shifted to Tijuana, Mexico, after federation requests, eliminating any realistic prospect of exclusion or replacement. Earlier speculation around geopolitical tensions and visa disputes never triggered formal withdrawal proceedings, and potential stand-ins such as Italy publicly rejected any hypothetical substitution. Trader consensus reflects this settled outcome because mid-tournament replacement is unprecedented under FIFA statutes once the competition begins. The only conceivable shifts would require an unforeseen mass withdrawal by Iran itself, which remains improbable given confirmed fixtures and active roster involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Replacement 100.0%
Italy <1%
Bolivia <1%
UAE <1%
$100,029 Vol.
$100,029 Vol.
Italy
No
No Replacement
Yes
Bolivia
No
UAE
No
Other
No
No Replacement 100.0%
Italy <1%
Bolivia <1%
UAE <1%
$100,029 Vol.
$100,029 Vol.
Italy
No
No Replacement
Yes
Bolivia
No
UAE
No
Other
No
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Iran has secured full participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup as one of Asia’s top qualifiers, with Team Melli already contesting group-stage matches in the co-hosted tournament across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. FIFA leadership has repeatedly affirmed the team’s status, players secured U.S. visas, and training shifted to Tijuana, Mexico, after federation requests, eliminating any realistic prospect of exclusion or replacement. Earlier speculation around geopolitical tensions and visa disputes never triggered formal withdrawal proceedings, and potential stand-ins such as Italy publicly rejected any hypothetical substitution. Trader consensus reflects this settled outcome because mid-tournament replacement is unprecedented under FIFA statutes once the competition begins. The only conceivable shifts would require an unforeseen mass withdrawal by Iran itself, which remains improbable given confirmed fixtures and active roster involvement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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