SpaceX achieved a major milestone with Starship Flight 14 on September 28, 2026, reaching low Earth orbit for the first time and deploying 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites despite an early engine shutdown that shortened the mission. This success has shifted focus to Flight 15, using Block 3 Booster 22 and Ship 42 from Starbase, with a provisional NET of October 19. The leading catalyst for current odds is the planned first tower catch attempt of the upper stage, following Elon Musk's assessment of at least a 50-60% success probability on the initial try. Traders are also watching for propellant transfer demos, potential simultaneous booster recovery, and FAA regulatory clearance, as these milestones directly influence timelines toward full reusability and operational Starlink deployments.