A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at +2.6–2.7°C and projected to peak near +3.5–4.0°C by November, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows this event outpacing prior strong episodes, adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific, though with typical lags and regional variability. Recent analyses place early 2026 monthly values near 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while seasonal outlooks indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures. Trader consensus around the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact monthly realization amid model spread and measurement revisions, with new observational updates and forecast runs likely to refine positioning before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at +2.6–2.7°C and projected to peak near +3.5–4.0°C by November, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows this event outpacing prior strong episodes, adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific, though with typical lags and regional variability. Recent analyses place early 2026 monthly values near 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while seasonal outlooks indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures. Trader consensus around the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact monthly realization amid model spread and measurement revisions, with new observational updates and forecast runs likely to refine positioning before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at +2.6–2.7°C and projected to peak near +3.5–4.0°C by November, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows this event outpacing prior strong episodes, adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific, though with typical lags and regional variability. Recent analyses place early 2026 monthly values near 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while seasonal outlooks indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures. Trader consensus around the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact monthly realization amid model spread and measurement revisions, with new observational updates and forecast runs likely to refine positioning before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already at +2.6–2.7°C and projected to peak near +3.5–4.0°C by November, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean surface temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows this event outpacing prior strong episodes, adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific, though with typical lags and regional variability. Recent analyses place early 2026 monthly values near 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while seasonal outlooks indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures. Trader consensus around the 1.30–1.49°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact monthly realization amid model spread and measurement revisions, with new observational updates and forecast runs likely to refine positioning before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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