Market icon
Sports·CBA

New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?

Market icon
Sports·CBA

New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?

37% chance
Polymarket
NEW
37% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' 63.5% implied probability for No on a new MLB CBA by December 1 stems from stalled negotiations between MLB owners and the MLBPA as the current deal's expiration looms, with no breakthroughs on divisive issues like luxury tax threshold hikes, minimum salary increases beyond $740,000, revenue sharing cuts, and service time reforms. Recent exchanges include the union's initial proposal in late September and owners' counter in mid-October, but formal talks have quieted over the past two weeks amid reports of wide gaps, per MLBPA chief Tony Clark's comments. Historical precedent of deadline brinkmanship, including the 2021 lockout, reinforces trader consensus for delay without recent momentum signaling urgency.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,157
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' 63.5% implied probability for No on a new MLB CBA by December 1 stems from stalled negotiations between MLB owners and the MLBPA as the current deal's expiration looms, with no breakthroughs on divisive issues like luxury tax threshold hikes, minimum salary increases beyond $740,000, revenue sharing cuts, and service time reforms. Recent exchanges include the union's initial proposal in late September and owners' counter in mid-October, but formal talks have quieted over the past two weeks amid reports of wide gaps, per MLBPA chief Tony Clark's comments. Historical precedent of deadline brinkmanship, including the 2021 lockout, reinforces trader consensus for delay without recent momentum signaling urgency.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,157
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 20, 2026, 12:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 37% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 37¢, the market collectively assigns a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" is 37% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 37% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.