Netanyahu remains actively engaged in the October 27, 2026, Knesset campaign, projecting strength through security messaging amid ongoing regional tensions and recent incidents such as the Flydubai cockpit attempt. Polls show his Likud-led bloc competitive or narrowly ahead in a fragmented field, with no public statements or procedural signals indicating withdrawal. Traders assign 99% probability to him staying on the ballot because Israeli law permits caretaker governance in deadlock scenarios, and his coalition-building efforts plus legal maneuvers have sustained viability despite criticism over prior security lapses. A late health event, decisive court ruling on eligibility, or abrupt coalition fracture could still shift the outlook before election day.