Trader consensus favors Ausar Thompson at 40% implied probability to lead the NBA in steals per game, edging Tyrese Maxey (33%) and Cason Wallace (13%) in a razor-tight race where all three average 2.0 SPG late in the 2025-26 regular season—Thompson across 68 games (135 total steals), Maxey in 63 (125 steals), and Wallace in 72 (144 steals). Thompson's recent surge to 2.02 SPG as of March 31, topping deflections at 4.4 per game and anchoring Detroit's second-ranked defense in just 25.8 MPG, has boosted his edge, while Maxey's post-All-Star steals pace and Wallace's volume lead reflect sustained elite disruption. With minimal games left, health, minutes distribution, and schedule strength will decide amid low injury risk for the trio.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAusar Thompson 39.9%
Tyrese Maxey 33.5%
Cason Wallace 13%
Kawhi Leonard 4.8%
$576,973 Vol.
$576,973 Vol.
Ausar Thompson
40%
Tyrese Maxey
34%
Cason Wallace
13%
Kawhi Leonard
5%
Dyson Daniels
3%
Jalen Williams
1%
Kris Dunn
1%
Herbert Jones
1%
Nikola Jokic
1%
Luka Doncic
<1%
Kelly Oubre Jr.
<1%
Matisse Thybulle
<1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
<1%
Alex Caruso
<1%
Mikal Bridges
<1%
Lonzo Ball
<1%
Jalen Suggs
<1%
De'Aaron Fox
<1%
OG Anunoby
<1%
Toumani Camara
<1%
Anthony Davis
<1%
Victor Wembanyama
<1%
Paul George
<1%
LaMelo Ball
<1%
Reed Sheppard
<1%
T.J. McConnell
<1%
Jaren Jackson Jr.
<1%
Paolo Banchero
<1%
Bam Adebayo
<1%
Andrew Nembhard
<1%
Amen Thompson
<1%
Draymond Green
<1%
Tari Eason
<1%
Josh Hart
<1%
Keon Ellis
<1%
Anthony Edwards
<1%
Jimmy Butler
<1%
James Harden
<1%
Scottie Barnes
<1%
Franz Wagner
<1%
Luguentz Dort
<1%
Jordan Poole
<1%
Jaden McDaniels
<1%
Ausar Thompson 39.9%
Tyrese Maxey 33.5%
Cason Wallace 13%
Kawhi Leonard 4.8%
$576,973 Vol.
$576,973 Vol.
Ausar Thompson
40%
Tyrese Maxey
34%
Cason Wallace
13%
Kawhi Leonard
5%
Dyson Daniels
3%
Jalen Williams
1%
Kris Dunn
1%
Herbert Jones
1%
Nikola Jokic
1%
Luka Doncic
<1%
Kelly Oubre Jr.
<1%
Matisse Thybulle
<1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
<1%
Alex Caruso
<1%
Mikal Bridges
<1%
Lonzo Ball
<1%
Jalen Suggs
<1%
De'Aaron Fox
<1%
OG Anunoby
<1%
Toumani Camara
<1%
Anthony Davis
<1%
Victor Wembanyama
<1%
Paul George
<1%
LaMelo Ball
<1%
Reed Sheppard
<1%
T.J. McConnell
<1%
Jaren Jackson Jr.
<1%
Paolo Banchero
<1%
Bam Adebayo
<1%
Andrew Nembhard
<1%
Amen Thompson
<1%
Draymond Green
<1%
Tari Eason
<1%
Josh Hart
<1%
Keon Ellis
<1%
Anthony Edwards
<1%
Jimmy Butler
<1%
James Harden
<1%
Scottie Barnes
<1%
Franz Wagner
<1%
Luguentz Dort
<1%
Jordan Poole
<1%
Jaden McDaniels
<1%
In the event of a tie for the highest steals per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
Market Opened: Oct 22, 2025, 1:45 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.nba.com/statsResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the event of a tie for the highest steals per-game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
Qualification for inclusion in official NBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to NBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard.
The resolution source will be the NBA (NBA.com/stats).
Resolution Source
https://www.nba.com/statsResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Ausar Thompson at 40% implied probability to lead the NBA in steals per game, edging Tyrese Maxey (33%) and Cason Wallace (13%) in a razor-tight race where all three average 2.0 SPG late in the 2025-26 regular season—Thompson across 68 games (135 total steals), Maxey in 63 (125 steals), and Wallace in 72 (144 steals). Thompson's recent surge to 2.02 SPG as of March 31, topping deflections at 4.4 per game and anchoring Detroit's second-ranked defense in just 25.8 MPG, has boosted his edge, while Maxey's post-All-Star steals pace and Wallace's volume lead reflect sustained elite disruption. With minimal games left, health, minutes distribution, and schedule strength will decide amid low injury risk for the trio.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions