Name: Largest company on September 30?
Start: 2024-09-18T18:30:50.13691Z
End: 2024-09-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market over which company will be the largest by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple (AAPL) is the largest company in the world by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft (MSFT) is the largest company in the world by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Microsoft

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nvidia (NVDA) is the largest company in the world by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

NVIDIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any company other than Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), or Nvidia (NVDA) is the largest company in the world by market cap at market close on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other

Largest Company

Largest company on September 30?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company end of February?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on January 31, 2025.

Largest company on January 31?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on December 31, 2025.

Largest Company end of 2025?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization at the end of the year.

Largest Company end of 2024?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on February 7, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company next Friday?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest company end of March?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2025, as of market close. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of April?

Largest company end of May?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of July?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of June?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of August?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Largest company end of September?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2025, as of market close. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

arch Largest company end of October?

Largest company end of October?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of November?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of June?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of March?

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Largest Company end of December 2026?

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sundar Pichai is no longer serving as CEO of Google for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sundar Pichai's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Google and/or Sundar Pichai, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

This is a market on how whether 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) will have the second-highest domestic gross on its opening weekend compared to all other movies released in 2025. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-For-Good-(2025)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 21 - 23) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) grosses the second-highest on its 3-day domestic opening weekend compared to any other movie in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If two other movies' opening weekend box office performances surpass that of 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) after the respective numbers are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will rank higher.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.

If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS).

If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.

If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?

This market will resolve according to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the lowest performance during the calendar year 2025.

Performance will be measured as the percentage change in each specified security's price during this market's timeframe, calculated by comparing the closing price for the last official trading day prior to this timeframe (December 31, 2024) to the closing price for the last official trading day within this timeframe (December 31, 2025).

All companies that are constituents of the Nasdaq-100 as of market issuance will be eligible for consideration, regardless of whether they are removed before the market's resolution date. Any company added to the index after market creation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the “Historical Quotes” page for the specified ticker on Nasdaq at: nasdaq.com.

Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.

If multiple specified companies exhibit exactly the same lowest performance, the market will resolve to the company whose ticker appears first in alphabetical order.

If any unspecified company achieves the lowest performance during the relevant period, the market will resolve to “Other”.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.

If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

Updates to historical prices displayed after resolution will not be considered.

Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) be the worst performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Largest company on September 30?

Apple
$47,711 Vol.
Yes

Microsoft
$16,324 Vol.
No

NVIDIA
$54,897 Vol.
No

Other
$53,235 Vol.
No

Market Context

Largest company on September 30?

Rules

Largest company on September 30?

Market Context

Largest company on September 30?

About

Related

Largest company on September 30?

Apple$47,711 Vol.Yescircle check

Microsoft$16,324 Vol.Nocircle xmark

NVIDIA$54,897 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other$53,235 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Largest company on September 30?

Rules

Largest company on September 30?

Market Context

Largest company on September 30?

About

Related

Apple
$47,711 Vol.
Yes

Microsoft
$16,324 Vol.
No

NVIDIA
$54,897 Vol.
No

Other
$53,235 Vol.
No