Name: January Inflation - Monthly
Start: 2025-01-15T23:13:14.894636Z
End: 2025-02-12T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the monthly inflation rate for January.

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.2 percent in January 2025 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2025 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on Feb 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

0.2%

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.3 percent in January 2025 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2025 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on Feb 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

0.3%

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.4 percent or more in January 2025 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2025 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on Feb 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

≥0.4%

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.1 percent or less in January 2025 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS January 2025 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on Feb 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

≤0.1%

US Monthly Inflation

January Inflation - Monthly

This is a market on predictions regarding inflation rates for November.

November Inflation

This is a market on the inflation rate for December, measuring the monthly increase in consumer prices.

December Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in February 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for February 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

February Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in March 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

March Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in April 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

April Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in May 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

May Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in June 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

June Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in July 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

July Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in August 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

August Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in September 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

September Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in October 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

October Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in November 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 18, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according the figures of the most recent previous month with available data. 

November Inflation - Monthly

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the number the one-month seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased in December 2025 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which reports to the one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according the figures of the most recent previous month with available data. 

December Inflation US - Monthly

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending December 2025 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in January 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2025 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in December 2025", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Will China's annual inflation increase by between 0.1% and 0.3% in December?

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in the U.K., before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased in November 2025 (% change) according to the monthly ONS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for November 2025 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on December 17, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation increase by ≤0.1% in November?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2025 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending December 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2025 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Consumer Price Index” option under the "Key Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting "Table 1". The relevant figure can be found under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665

Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.3% in December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentinian, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) increased in December 2025 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. 

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone as reported by Eurostat.

This market will resolve according to the number the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by in November 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Eurostat report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for November 2025, currently scheduled to be released on December 17, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Market resolution will be based on the  "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)" figure for the "HICP - monthly data (monthly rate of change)," available on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_mmor/default/table?lang=en&category=prc.prc_hicp). 

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar

Will the Eurozone's monthly inflation increase by ≤0.0% in November?

This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.

This market will resolve according to the percentage increase in Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2025 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.

The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), scheduled to be released in January 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If the report for December 2025 is not released by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve according to the last figure published.

You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending November 2025 as reported by Eurostat.

This market will resolve according to the number the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by over the 12-month period ending November 2025 (% change) according to the monthly Eurostat report.

The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for November 2025, currently scheduled to be released on December 17, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Market resolution will be based on the  "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)" figure for the "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change)," available on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_manr/default/table?lang=en&category=prc.prc_hicp).

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar

Will the Eurozone's annual inflation increase by ≤2.3% in November?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

The IPCA (t. Broad National Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation rate measure used by the Brazilian government, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The IPCA reflects the cost of living for households across urban areas in Brazil, measuring changes in prices for a diverse set of goods and services.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 12-month IPCA for December 2025 is below 5.50%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#ipca) public release of 12 month IPCA figure for December 2025, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure.

Because this market's resolution source reports inflation over 12 month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.56%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record.

Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will December 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the monetary policy rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Colombia's December 2025 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its December 19, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos

This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the December meeting?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve according to the EU GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025" flash release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0 and 1.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Jacksonville Jaguars team to win the AFC South based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

January Inflation - Monthly

≤0.1%
$37,426 Vol.
No

0.2%
$141,274 Vol.
No

0.3%
$22,387 Vol.
No

≥0.4%
$183,497 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

January Inflation - Monthly

Rules

January Inflation - Monthly

Market Context

January Inflation - Monthly

About

Related

January Inflation - Monthly

≤0.1%$37,426 Vol.Nocircle xmark

0.2%$141,274 Vol.Nocircle xmark

0.3%$22,387 Vol.Nocircle xmark

≥0.4%$183,497 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

January Inflation - Monthly

Rules

January Inflation - Monthly

Market Context

January Inflation - Monthly

About

Related

≤0.1%
$37,426 Vol.
No

0.2%
$141,274 Vol.
No

0.3%
$22,387 Vol.
No

≥0.4%
$183,497 Vol.
Yes