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Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?

<0.0001 ETH 100.0%

0.0001 - 0.001 ETH 100.0%

0.001 - 0.01 ETH 100.0%

0.01 - 0.1 ETH 100.0%

Polymarket

$299,593 Vol.

Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844 (or “proto-danksharding”) is a major step toward scaling Ethereum. It lowers the cost of posting L2 rollup data to the Ethereum mainnet via “blobs” (see https://consensys.io/blog/ethereum-evolved-dencun-upgrade-part-5-eip-4844). There has been much discussion about what the gas prices per blob will be after EIP-4844 is introduced.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the median gas price per blob is less than 0.0001 ETH one month after EIP-4844 launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If EIP-4844 hasn’t been launched by Dec 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be on-chain data for blob prices exactly 30 days (720 hours) after EIP-4844 is launched. Specifically, 30 days after EIP-4844 is launched, the median gas price per blob during the following 7-day (168 hour) period will be calculated and used to resolve this market. This market may be updated with specific sources that will be looked at for determining resolution.

Volume
$299,593
End Date
Apr 19, 2024
Created At
Jan 19, 2024, 5:25 PM ET
Ethereum Improvement Proposal 4844 (or “proto-danksharding”) is a major step toward scaling Ethereum. It lowers the cost of posting L2 rollup data to the Ethereum mainnet via “blobs” (see https://consensys.io/blog/ethereum-evolved-dencun-upgrade-part-5-eip-4844). There has been much discussion about what the gas prices per blob will be after EIP-4844 is introduced. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the median gas price per blob is less than 0.0001 ETH one month after EIP-4844 launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If EIP-4844 hasn’t been launched by Dec 31, 2024 ET this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be on-chain data for blob prices exactly 30 days (720 hours) after EIP-4844 is launched. Specifically, 30 days after EIP-4844 is launched, the median gas price per blob during the following 7-day (168 hour) period will be calculated and used to resolve this market. This market may be updated with specific sources that will be looked at for determining resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<0.0001 ETH" at 100%, followed by "0.0001 - 0.001 ETH" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" has generated $299.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" is "<0.0001 ETH" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0.0001 - 0.001 ETH" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?

<0.0001 ETH 100.0%

0.0001 - 0.001 ETH 100.0%

0.001 - 0.01 ETH 100.0%

0.01 - 0.1 ETH 100.0%

Polymarket

$299,593 Vol.

Market icon

<0.0001 ETH

$49,401 Vol.

Yes

Market icon

0.0001 - 0.001 ETH

$28,145 Vol.

No

Market icon

0.001 - 0.01 ETH

$51,101 Vol.

No

Market icon

0.01 - 0.1 ETH

$54,946 Vol.

No

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>0.1 ETH

$35,365 Vol.

No

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EIP-4844 doesn't launch in 2024

$80,635 Vol.

No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<0.0001 ETH" at 100%, followed by "0.0001 - 0.001 ETH" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" has generated $299.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" is "<0.0001 ETH" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0.0001 - 0.001 ETH" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Gas price per blob 1 month after EIP-4844?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.