Name: ECB Interest Rates: January 2025
Start: 2025-01-03T18:57:03.921737Z
End: 2025-01-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a negrisk market group about European Central Bank interest rates set after the January 2025 meeting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the European Central Bank's (ECB) January 2025 meeting the deposit facility rate is increased by any number of basis points above the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for January 30, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Increase

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the European Central Bank's (ECB) January 2025 meeting the deposit facility rate remains at the exact level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for January 30, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

No Change

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the European Central Bank's (ECB) January 2025 meeting the deposit facility rate is reduced by between 1 (inclusive) and 25 (inclusive) basis points beneath the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for January 30, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

25 bps decrease

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the European Central Bank's (ECB) January 2025 meeting the deposit facility rate is reduced by more than 50 basis points beneath the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for January 30, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

>50 bps decrease

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the European Central Bank's (ECB) January 2025 meeting the deposit facility rate is reduced by between 26 (inclusive) and 50 (inclusive) basis points beneath the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for January 30, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

50 bps decrease

ECB Interest Rates

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

This is a negrisk market group over how much the European Central Bank will cut interest rates on their meeting scheduled for December 12, 2024.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2024

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for March 5-6, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by June 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

ECB Interest Rates: March 2025

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) July 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its July 24, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the July 24, 2025 meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by August 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

archECB Interest Rates: July 2025

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) September 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its September 11, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the September 11, 2025 meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by October 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

ECB Interest Rates: September 2025

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) October 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its October 30, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the October 30, 2025 meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by December 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

ECB Interest Rates: October 2025

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) December 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its December 18, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the December 18, 2025, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2025

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) October 2025 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its October 30, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the October 30, 2025, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by November 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) February 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its February 5, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the February 5, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending November 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12-month period ending November 2025 (% change) according to the monthly ONS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for November 2025 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on December 17, 2025. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar

Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.5% in November?

This market will resolve according to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the lowest performance during December 2025.

Performance will be measured as the percentage change in each specified security's price during this market's timeframe, calculated by comparing the closing price for the last official trading day prior to this timeframe (November 28, 2025) to the closing price for the last official trading day within this timeframe (December 31, 2025).

All companies that are constituents of the Nasdaq-100 as of market issuance will be eligible for consideration, regardless of whether they are removed before the market's resolution date. Any company added to the index after market creation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the “Historical Quotes” page for the specified ticker on Nasdaq at: nasdaq.com.

Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.

If multiple specified companies exhibit exactly the same lowest performance, the market will resolve to the company whose ticker appears first in alphabetical order.

If any unspecified company achieves the lowest performance during the relevant period, the market will resolve to “Other”.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.

If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

Updates to historical prices displayed after resolution will not be considered.

Will Strategy (MSTR) be the worst performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during December 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Nike (NKE) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for NKE prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Nike (NKE) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for NKE prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If NKE does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for NKE.

Nike (NKE) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla (TSLA) achieves a daily high price greater than 488.5399 USD during market hours by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the respective company’s intraday high quotes during the specified timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Nasdaq website for the relevant ticker (https://www.nasdaq.com/), specifically the 'Today's High/Low' figure on the main page, as well as the 'High' column on the Historical Quotes page.

Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for December 31, 2025, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.

Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $500b on December 31?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Zcash (ZEC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ZEC/USDT “Low” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ZEC_USDT
with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Zcash dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.

This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.

A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

Increase
$285,497 Vol.
No

No Change
$213,761 Vol.
No

25 bps decrease
$183,022 Vol.
Yes

50 bps decrease
$187,240 Vol.
No

>50 bps decrease
$428,317 Vol.
No

Market Context

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

Rules

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

Market Context

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

About

Related

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

Increase$285,497 Vol.Nocircle xmark

No Change$213,761 Vol.Nocircle xmark

25 bps decrease$183,022 Vol.Yescircle check

50 bps decrease$187,240 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>50 bps decrease$428,317 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

Rules

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

Market Context

ECB Interest Rates: January 2025

About

Related

Increase
$285,497 Vol.
No

No Change
$213,761 Vol.
No

25 bps decrease
$183,022 Vol.
Yes

50 bps decrease
$187,240 Vol.
No

>50 bps decrease
$428,317 Vol.
No