Elevated eurozone inflation, driven by sharp energy price increases amid Middle East conflicts, has shifted trader expectations toward a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike by the December 2026 meeting. Recent data showed September inflation at 3.8 percent, with fourth-quarter projections revised higher to around 3.7 percent and annual forecasts lifted to 3.0 percent for 2026. A Reuters poll of economists found near-unanimous support for holding rates in October followed by a December increase, reflecting the central bank's data-dependent approach and commitment to returning inflation to its 2 percent target. Limited evidence of broad second-round effects and resilient growth have kept larger moves or cuts as low-probability outcomes in current pricing.