Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence of roughly 28–35 tweets per day, driven by routine X platform commentary and incremental Tesla updates, has positioned the 220-239 bracket as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability for the August 28–September 4 window. Recent weekly settlements have clustered in comparable moderate ranges, reflecting a cooldown from earlier 2025–2026 spikes tied to political cycles. Traders see limited upside risk of a surge absent major breaking news or controversy, while the tight 200-219 secondary outcome at 23.5% accounts for minor daily variance. The eight-day period closes imminently, leaving little room for last-minute catalysts to shift the aggregated trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 50%
220-239 49%
240-259 1.4%
260-279 <1%
$2,705,659 Vol.
$2,705,659 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
200-219
50%
220-239
49%
240-259
1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 50%
220-239 49%
240-259 1.4%
260-279 <1%
$2,705,659 Vol.
$2,705,659 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
200-219
$247,442 Vol.
50%
220-239
$216,260 Vol.
49%
240-259
$210,457 Vol.
1%
260-279
$208,099 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$171,420 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$152,579 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$123,321 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$74,586 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$45,415 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$30,194 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$28,412 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$19,228 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$11,776 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$10,528 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$9,607 Vol.
<1%
500+
$67,398 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 28 12:00 PM ET to September 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence of roughly 28–35 tweets per day, driven by routine X platform commentary and incremental Tesla updates, has positioned the 220-239 bracket as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability for the August 28–September 4 window. Recent weekly settlements have clustered in comparable moderate ranges, reflecting a cooldown from earlier 2025–2026 spikes tied to political cycles. Traders see limited upside risk of a surge absent major breaking news or controversy, while the tight 200-219 secondary outcome at 23.5% accounts for minor daily variance. The eight-day period closes imminently, leaving little room for last-minute catalysts to shift the aggregated trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 28 12:00 PM ET to September 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$2,705,659End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 28 12:00 PM ET to September 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence of roughly 28–35 tweets per day, driven by routine X platform commentary and incremental Tesla updates, has positioned the 220-239 bracket as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability for the August 28–September 4 window. Recent weekly settlements have clustered in comparable moderate ranges, reflecting a cooldown from earlier 2025–2026 spikes tied to political cycles. Traders see limited upside risk of a surge absent major breaking news or controversy, while the tight 200-219 secondary outcome at 23.5% accounts for minor daily variance. The eight-day period closes imminently, leaving little room for last-minute catalysts to shift the aggregated trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 28 12:00 PM ET to September 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$2,705,659End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence of roughly 28–35 tweets per day, driven by routine X platform commentary and incremental Tesla updates, has positioned the 220-239 bracket as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability for the August 28–September 4 window. Recent weekly settlements have clustered in comparable moderate ranges, reflecting a cooldown from earlier 2025–2026 spikes tied to political cycles. Traders see limited upside risk of a surge absent major breaking news or controversy, while the tight 200-219 secondary outcome at 23.5% accounts for minor daily variance. The eight-day period closes imminently, leaving little room for last-minute catalysts to shift the aggregated trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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