Trader consensus clusters around Arizona (19.8%), Michigan (18.5%), and Duke (17.5%) for the 2026 NCAA Tournament due to their standout 2025-26 recruiting classes and transfer portal hauls, offsetting roster turnover from NBA departures and graduations. Arizona's addition of five-star Koa Peat bolsters an already deep frontcourt under Tommy Lloyd, while Michigan's Dusty May raided the portal for proven scorers like Nimari Burnett, fueling Big Ten title hopes. Duke counters with No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg anchoring Jon Scheyer's reloaded backcourt. This preseason parity stems from power-conference depth, unproven freshman integration, and historical volatility where mid-majors and upsets reshape brackets, keeping implied probabilities bunched amid zero games played.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArizona 19.8%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Florida 9.4%
$21,690,977 Vol.
$21,690,977 Vol.
Arizona
20%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Florida
9%
Houston
7%
Iowa State
5%
Illinois
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
2%
Michigan State
2%
St John's
2%
Gonzaga
1%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virginia
1%
Alabama
1%
Louisville
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Nebraska
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
VCU
<1%
Texas
<1%
Utah State
<1%
Arizona 19.8%
Michigan 19%
Duke 18%
Florida 9.4%
$21,690,977 Vol.
$21,690,977 Vol.
Arizona
20%
Michigan
19%
Duke
18%
Florida
9%
Houston
7%
Iowa State
5%
Illinois
4%
Purdue
4%
Connecticut
3%
Arkansas
2%
Michigan State
2%
St John's
2%
Gonzaga
1%
UCLA
1%
Kansas
1%
Vanderbilt
1%
Tennessee
1%
Virginia
1%
Alabama
1%
Louisville
<1%
Texas Tech
<1%
Nebraska
<1%
Texas A&M
<1%
Miami (FL)
<1%
Kentucky
<1%
Iowa
<1%
Saint Louis
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
VCU
<1%
Texas
<1%
Utah State
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Market Opened: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around Arizona (19.8%), Michigan (18.5%), and Duke (17.5%) for the 2026 NCAA Tournament due to their standout 2025-26 recruiting classes and transfer portal hauls, offsetting roster turnover from NBA departures and graduations. Arizona's addition of five-star Koa Peat bolsters an already deep frontcourt under Tommy Lloyd, while Michigan's Dusty May raided the portal for proven scorers like Nimari Burnett, fueling Big Ten title hopes. Duke counters with No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg anchoring Jon Scheyer's reloaded backcourt. This preseason parity stems from power-conference depth, unproven freshman integration, and historical volatility where mid-majors and upsets reshape brackets, keeping implied probabilities bunched amid zero games played.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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